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Old 06-25-2009, 06:45 PM   #9

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Re: Backtesting Morning Range Breakout Using Excel VBA

Here's the first pass results, equity chart from 9/06 to 6/24/09 (attached).

The steady profit trend on the graph was from 1/08 to 10/08 (peak equity was right before the Oct crash).

Some explanations and limitations:
1)This is run using 1 contract ES futures contract, $2.50/commission each way (what I pay)
2)Rules for the test:
*High and Low of the open bar (15 min on this test) set the breakout markers
*1 trade only per day
*Exit on the close
*Entry was by the first close above the open bar high, or below the open bar low
*No entries taken after 11AM
*No Stops or Profit targets used.

Numbers for the system, trading 1 contract:
Net profit - $20,585
Profit factor - 1.12
Percent profitable - 49%
Avg trade profit - $30
Max consecutive losing trades - 7
Max drawdown - $15k
Adjusted profit factor - 1.01

Because of the low net profit per trade, and low adjusted profit factor, the system would still need a lot more work.

tradestation would not give me the 7 years of data I asked for yet (pending download) but hopefully this gives you a first crack at how it might fare.
Attached Thumbnails
Backtesting Morning Range Breakout Using Excel VBA-es_15min_breakout.gif  

Last edited by CarbonElemental; 06-25-2009 at 06:56 PM.
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Old 06-25-2009, 07:36 PM   #10

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Re: Backtesting Morning Range Breakout Using Excel VBA

Here's the system using a $1k stop on each trade.

$1k stop is the optimal over this span of data without adding in more filtering.

Net is that total profits are now $28,900 and profit factor of 1.09 raw (1.16 long and 1.03 shorts). 1.02 adjusted overall.

Max consec losing trades is 8.

Based on a visual scan of the trades, it would need to treat short and long trades differently, with the long trades needing more room stop wise and the short trades could have a tighter stop.
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Backtesting Morning Range Breakout Using Excel VBA-es_15min_breakout_1k_stop.gif  
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