Here we go again... trying to play guess the top...
Here's my 2 cents - watch others attempt to catch the falling knives and join in once there's some sort of confirmation.
What is interesting is reading the tops/shorts threads appearing here and elitetrader, meanwhile the market continues higher... hmmm....
Here's a simple 1 month DJI chart from Google Finance:
If you are looking to enter the big move or are swing trading, I would have a real hard time taking a short now or soon.
What is intriguing through all of this though is that all these new shorts have either been taken out or may be still holding a losing position. How many times have we seen one day where it just seems like there is a domino effect of heavy volume taking place... Should the market continue higher, I would not be surprised to see a day or two where the shorts say enough pain.
Daytrading is a different topic altogether in my opinion. In daytrading, I am just looking for movements and my setups. I could care less what the dominant overall trend is (up now) or the possible upcoming trend (sooner or later it might head down).
Side note - in a more investment portfolio, it's hard to debate the buy and hold strategy... Just buy some index ETF's and let them ride. Of course there's many factors here if this makes sense for you, but in general terms, the buy and holders are doing very well right now and they ALWAYS do fine in the long run. Always. NEVER has the market gone down AND stayed down. We are ALWAYS setting new highs and coincidentally bringing more top callers out as well. It's just a matter of staying the course when we do get the 'pullback' or sideways movements. On days like a 500 pt down move on the DOW, you have to be out there buying if you are a long-term holder.