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Re: profit targets
Franky, I think you're asking at least three questions: How to calculate profit targets; how/whether to scale in/out; how to trade sideways markets. If I've missed any, let me know.
Calculation of profit targets is more of an art than a science. I trade basic patterns and once I get what I consider to be a high probability move, I calculate my R:R on where I’m going to place my initial stop and project my target to the most likely first level of S (or R) for the move. I’ll also overlay Fib retracements as well. If they match with the S (or R), so much the better. I also calculate a 2nd and 3rd target area, but these rarely get hit as they’re major moves out. Nice when they do though! I also use time-based criteria to get me out – if the price doesn’t work my time-price slope within 25% of the number of periods I’ve allocated for the move, I’ll exit. If I steam on through my levels I’ll hold the trade, or if there’s a pause with volume indicating it is just likely a pause, I’ll hold. Otherwise I’m out.
I rarely scale in or out. If I have a conviction for a trade, I’ll go in with my full position size. When it’s time to come out, I come out. I have used both methods and while putting on a partial position does reduce your losses on losers, if your W:L is high enough and your risk is sufficiently low, what’s the point, a scale in just robs you of greater profits.
Same with a scale out. Sure it’s good to lock in a profit, but again, if you have a W:L that indicates most of your trades are going to be outright winners anyway, and your trade is being traded to your plan and your method, why limit the profit? I suspect it all comes down to your performance ratios and your confidence in what you’re doing – if indeed there’s any difference between those two.
Sideways markets. If you’ve identified a sideways market with sufficient range to make it worthwhile (strokes for folks) then trade it. As you’re a scalper I guess that’s precisely the sort of market you’re aiming for. I don’t scalp (not intentionally anyway LOL), but if I did, I definitely wouldn’t be looking to scale in or out, there just isn’t the time to pick off 5 ticks in tranches and certainly if you’re trading size (which you must be to be making any money at scalping). 200-300 trades a day and scaling in and out? Keeping track of your tranches would be a nightmare. Would be for me anyway.
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Âksâr chhôr reăhmŭkh yŭkôleăkpĭntŭ musĕkâtônd sanhyoŭk sannha
Direct knowing, without conscious use of reasoning, can only come after extensive training and preparation
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