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Old 09-14-2006, 04:27 PM
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Re: Market Profile Strategies

Breakout entry is one of the areas that I hope to continue to improve on with time. In general, I try to enter a partial position on the breakout using a market order and enter the balance on a retracement, if there is one, using a limit order. For the record, I didn't get into this trend until much later, but here is how one could have played it. Also refer to the previous charts for the profiles.

On 9/11, the ES traded to the upper bracket limit at 1314.75 and formed a Volume divergence, as indicated on the chart. Volume was not confirming the breakout. One could have taken a responsive trade and shorted near the upper limit. The target would have been to the middle of the distribution (or the high volume node). Since we were trading above the high volume node (HVN), a bias to the upside would have been appropriate. So if a long trade were taken near the HVN, the target would be to the extreme of the bracket at 1314.75. (Note that volume decreased significantly as the ES approached the HVN, signaling that it is unlikely that the market would trade through the HVN.) However, since the ES was in a short-term balance area, imbalance was expected to follow. When the ES traded to the upper limit, its behavior should be monitored using market internals. In this case, the ES traded through the upper limit on high volume. It's important to know what constitutes high volume for the markets traded. I usually monitor internals on a 1 min and 5 min chart.

Soultrader, your breakout trade setup using TRIN is a good one and I will look for it next time. Thanks.

Stop Placement: Divide the ES composite range into octants (8 sections). The 8th octant at the upper and lower limits corresponds roughly to the 2nd standard deviation where approximately 95% of prices trade. The range of the ES composite from 9/7 to 9/11 was roughly 1302.50 to 1314.75 or 12.25 points. Dividing 12.25 by 8 yields 1.5 points per octant. A stop can be placed 1.5 points below the upper limit. Also, keep in mind volatility and use the greater of the two values. I won't get into volatility here.

There are many ways to trade a breakout and one just needs to find the way that works for them. Another example would be to wait a certain amount of time and if the market is still trading beyond the bracket limit, enter the trade.
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