|
Quote: |
|
 |
|
|
I don't predict but use measured move from a pattern to identify a trend and a length of that trend. Case in point, a breakout from a triangle, I expect it to be a beginning of a trend. If I'm wrong, I get stopped out, end of story. If it is a trend, then I have a length of trend in mind where it would go to. I don't know if it does but I know the probability that it will make it and not make it. This is the best I've seen and learn.
Let's take today's action and the chart above. I assume everyone agrees that ER2 (and possibly other eminis) are trending yes? I see it trending because it broke out from a double-bottom pattern. From past learned knowledge and experience, the measured move of this trend to go to 825. Will it go higher than 825? I have no idea. I know the higher probability that it goes to 825, after that, I have no stats to back my position so I exit before hitting the target. So I identify the trend early on when it breaks from a major/significant support or resistance level.
Now, if it breaks down before reaching 825, I have one clue to let me know that it may not make it and that is when it fails to make a higher high and starts showing a lower low. This tells me to either tighten my stops or just exit all together.
I know I'm being verbose but hopefully the message is clear. |
|
|
|
|
I totally get what your saying here. I think similar to you too. But when he says the word 'trend day', I think he's referring to those kind of days (bullish for example), where little to no significant pivot lows get violated. The kind of huge range days like the big drop day on the dow. The open and close are close to the extremes of the range. I think this is what he's referring to as a trend day. They don't come that often.
There are many days like the one you posted where there are significant trends intra-day, but the day may end up as a doji. I didn't know you were considering these as trend days.