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......And of course - knowing that we are in a trend or not is just ONE part of the equation. The next part is when to exit... But I suppose if you know when we are trending you will know when the trend is over vs. a brief rest or pullback. |
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The two are mutually exclusive. That is, it is possible to know that we are trending and NOT know when it will end.
Many people buy tops and sell bottoms because they recognize trend but cannot "predict" the end of the trend. BTW, Prediction is not neccassary, but that's a discussion for another thread.
If the market is making higher Pivot or Swing highs and making higher Pivot or Swing lows, the trend is UP. The magnitude in price and time cannot be known but the trend itself can be defined.
If trader x buys just as the market retraces, well timing and trade management come into play, not trend definition.
How did you do on the Last big sell off in Feb? I suspect you did well. Why? Because pretty early on you realized being a seller for the day made more profit sense. In short, you knew the trend/momentum was down and you did not want to fight it.
I know you use candle patterns particularly reversal signals. But you also have said that reversal signals should be taken when there is a trend to reverse. Hence you must therefore be able to detect trend. Did I read this wrong?
I would say the first hour stuff only sets a bias that can on can not be true. However, what price actually does-higher high during the day tells what the trend is. And that can be seen on a chart.
Lastly, Known the trend and creating a profitable strategy do not go hand in hand. Knowledge of the trend direction does not solve all the psychological issues involved in trading. You can see trend and still not have a "trader's mind". Thus, just because you know the trend does not mean your P&L goes thru the roof.