Traders Laboratory - View Single Post - Optimal or Useful?
View Single Post
  #6 (permalink)  
Old 03-18-2007, 09:37 AM
TheBramble's Avatar
TheBramble TheBramble is offline
TheBramble is watching you...

Trader Specs
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Phnom Penh
Posts: 39
Thanks: 0
Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts
Re: Optimal or Useful?

Quote:
View Post
We have heard of the dangers of optimizing an indicator to perform well over a past period.
Yes often, and I did subscribe to that piece of advice myself for a long time. But I am now convinced it simply isn't useful.

Even if you just allow for being in a Bull or Bear phase for whatever instrument you're trading and adjust your upper and lower levels for indicating overbought/oversold this will find this yields a higher number of successful trade entries. And fewer trade entries too.

You can then take this one step further and positively optimise for the recent history of the instrument under analysis. All instruments go through cycles of expansion and contraction and the periodicity of those cycles WILL change over time. You need (IMHO) to let the instrument tell you what beat it's marching too rather than take a position that all instruments will bend to the might of your POWER setups!

Having said that, I use few indicators and the work involved in tailoring even those few to my traded instruments requires significantly more time and more effort. And it makes it doubly intensive when you have a scanner running on indicator-based formula and parameters too. But, in my view, the payoff is well worth the additional energy and time.

__________________
Âksâr chhôr reăhmŭkh yŭkôleăkpĭntŭ musĕkâtônd sanhyoŭk sannha
Direct knowing, without conscious use of reasoning, can only come after extensive training and preparation
Reply With Quote