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Old 03-14-2007, 01:34 PM
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Re: Interest Rate Parity

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Is it really worth your while borrowing Yen and coverting it to USD,EUR,AUD etc to gain from higher local interest rates then converting back to Yen to repay your loan?
If you’re talking bout actually “trading” the physical instruments, which I guess you are? then all you're seeking is value & prospective cross compounding, yeah?

As you say, the carry exists because of the interest rate differential between the trading nations. Money shifts around seeking high yield. The buck & Sterling currently benefit from a + 5.2% bias on the differential, whilst the EU attracts + 3.25% yield over the Asian currency.

If you look at a Daily chart based on those trading partners you’ll see the positive flow in positioning yourself short Yen (Long Dollars, Sterling & Euro)

Unless the rate differential gets squeezed (Yen rates increase and/or the others deflate), then nothing will really unseat the carry advantage, & traders will proportionally leg into yield advantage.

Sure, every once in a while outside influences spook the fast money or shorter frame speculators, but if the generic fundamentals hold good, then the long range players will merely soak up those pullbacks to buy more contra Yen positions.

As a trader, your prime objective is to seek value & compound profits. By exploiting the carry, spread across the array of cross instruments, you're utilizing positive bias.

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