Like I said, a time stop is not about what the market wants, but rather about what I want. However I do understand some of what
Mark Fisher is talking about.
Assume there are two types of traders:
1. the quick
2. the dead.
The quick are characterized as those that can both see and seize opportunities in the beginning stages.
The dead need more and more confirmation to recognize opportunities. They rely on word or mouth, news events, and various other ways for confirmation. The dead are thus late to the party. They tend to be buying tops and selling bottoms.
Now let's suppose you are on of the quick and you buy the market at 100. 30 minutes later, price is still around 100, say 99-101. Now the dead are starting to come to the party on the long side. Mark is saying, if everybody can get in at the same price you did then the trade cannot be all that good. Here we see that. The dead are now able to enter at pretty much at the same price you did. This is a clue that you are not in a good trade. By definition, the dead are late and wrong more than right. So if they are going long..............
We are not so much talking about buying bottoms and selling tops here. What we are really talking about is the idea that once everyone else recognizes the value of the trade, the largest part of the opportunity (and some would say, easiest) is usually over.
Now, If you could focus on entries that are closer to the point where the dominant order flow changes, then the market should spend less time in a 'no-go" state. If you can go long as the loser (the dead) has to sell against himself (close his short) than you can use the oder flow in your favor. From
VSA, we can see where the Smart Money entices the herd into a losing position so the herd has to close out at a loss, but in so doing create even more movement against themselves.
In other words, if you can enter at points where the market tends to react from, then the positon doesn't have to move against you. Nor do you have to sit and wait for the actually price run to start.