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Re: Risk Free Trade
This has gotten me think.
The point is not the tightness or loosness of the stop, its getting your trade to BE as soon as possible but also the risk involved to make that last bit.
A couple of recent grain trades has gotten me to think about those trades, so thanks for being Devil's Advocate. The direction for both trades were correct The management of the beans trade was horrible.
went long july corn around 427 (on 23 Jan 07)with a stop of 5 cents ($250), that got taken out the next day or so, but it was pretty quick. sit on hands and hum and ha about what corn is doing, not much, trading sideways.
later beans made a move, jumped on around 748 (on 30 Jan 07), with a 10 cent stop ($500), the management was poor due to thoughts about keeping the small 8 cent profit that I had and thoughts about what beans may do, each down tick confirmed what I had in my head, what else to do but bail out. beans over 800 right now or $2500 from my entry per contract.
that's besides the point.
I'll use YM as an example of my madness.
10 risk
10 reward target
1:1 initial risk, reward ratio
even if you scale out of a trade with multiple of 2 lots, you can still implement a BE trade by moving your stop, but I'll just use an all in, all out example.
market goes +8 on your trade, now if you are hard headed and want those last few ticks, well, you know what you are. if you don't move your stop to BE, your risk has increased! for those last 2 ticks, you're willing to risk 18 ticks! whats that a 9:1 risk:reward, the trade will still cost you from your own account 10 ticks for find out, 8 from the market or $90 per contract.
with the BE management, your risk now becomes 4:1, if you're willing to risk the 8 that you've gained for another 2 ticks, but what will it cost you from your own account to find out??? nothing other than commissions and possible "slippage", ok so a trade will never be risk free, but its been reduced big time!!! But the thing is willing to give up a winning trade for your target.
Even if you scale out, this can still be implemented.
2 lot multiple.
risk 10 or ($100 per 2 lots)
half target +5
move stop BE -5
other half target your call, trade is risk free now.
The issue at hand is getting stopped out for scratch trade and the market takes off. How to deal with that is a psychological issue, not a entry, exit technique or method.
The size of your stop is a risk tolerance subject or what you feel is suitable for a trade to work out.
The desire for the trade to work out will also affect your judgement of whether to move the stop or not and to what point.
Hope for huge profits, expect a scratch trade. The worst case is you exerted some mental energy and it did not cost you too much money.
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Winfred
Life is a comedy for those who think and a tragedy for those who feel.Horace Walpole Doubt all before you believe anything!Sir Francis Bacon
Last edited by wsam29; 02-23-2007 at 04:35 AM.
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