[Kiwi]

After a number of years I have just reread Douglas's Trading in the Zone.

What I realize is that I have a similar issue. I have intellectualized probability but when I am trading I do not believe it at a deep level. I don't recognize that this setup has a 60% winrate so I should expect 4 out of 10 entries to fail.

So, like most traders I try to improve the odds by learning more about the markets or somehow discarding those setups I think will fail (lol). This might resonate:

"It's the ability to believe in the unpredictability of the game at the micro level and simultaneously believe in the predictability of the game at the macro level that makes the casino and the professional gambler effective and successful at what they do. Their belief in the uniqueness of each hand prevents them from engaging in the pointless endeavor of trying to predict the outcome of each individual hand. They have learned and completely accepted the fact that they don't know what's going to happen next. More important, they don't need to know in order to make money consistently. Because they don't have to know what's going to happen next, they don't place any special significance, emotional or otherwise, on each individual hand, spin of the wheel, or roll of the dice. In other words, they're not encumbered by unrealistic expectations about what is going to happen, nor are their egos involved in a way that makes them have to be right."

I am just about to run a few cycles of his exercise to see if I can improve my performance. I'll let you know how it goes.