ES Trading for 10/8 thru 10/12 2007

[cjstrader5]

how do you get the market profile on chart in tradestation cjstrader5

[cjstrader5]

	Quote:	ant
	Reference the chart below for the post above. Attachment 3290

Ant how did you make this chart in tradestation?

[Dogpile]

well, we are building higher value thus far in front of the FOMC minutes due out at 2pm EST. This is a tough spot as the higher value that we are building is bullish but we are pinned just beneath 1570 higher volume area and rejected just under that level this morning. If we break up, consistent with the theme for the day (higher value) -- it might be choppy sledding.

If we break lower, then there is some running rom down to 1558.00. This would be consistent with my bearish bias coming into the day.

We built a good PVP at 1567.00 with VWAP and price there too. This was a good balancing.

[ant]

	Quote:	cjstrader5
	Ant how did you make this chart in tradestation?

cjstrader5, I'm using my own MP indicator.

[ant]

Today is a rotational day with higher value, as Dogpile noted, I plan to get long if the ES trades below today's developing value area for a play back to value. If the ES trades below 1558, I would not go long.

[Dogpile]

here is what I think I missed today...


On Sep 19th, we gapped up after a big move up and then had ~107k contracts trade at 1546.00 -- and this PVP proved to be a major pivot for the 7 successive trading days.

This time, the 1570 pvp was actually not a really large PVP in terms of contracts traded there. there were 48,357 traded there on Friday. We then shook out longs with a down day before building more volume high up in the range.

As it turns out, getting long would have been tricky today anyway. But this was not really such major resistance to fear.

When there is any doubt, best to just go with the daily bias --- ie, when there is no major morning buying/selling tail indicating a reversal --- just trade in the direction of the value migration. If VWAP > VWAP[1], stay long biased. If VWAP < VWAP[1], consider the short side or look for a 'b' type of profile and a higher low to get long.

[ant]

	Quote:	Dogpile
	here is what I think I missed today... On Sep 19th, we gapped up after a big move up and then had ~107k contracts trade at 1546.00 -- and this PVP proved to be a major pivot for the 7 successive trading days. This time, the 1570 pvp was actually not a really large PVP in terms of contracts traded there. there were 48,357 traded there on Friday. We then shook out longs with a down day before building more volume high up in the range.

The high volume area around 1570 did provide resistance the first time it was visited this morning. I wasn't aware of that area until you mentioned it in your post above. Why did you think that that level would provide strong resistance given the other conditions you mentioned (b shape, higher value, etc)?

ES-HV.GIF

	Quote:	Dogpile
	As it turns out, getting long would have been tricky today anyway. But this was not really such major resistance to fear.

There were two long trades today that set up at the VAH and the POC with bullish divergences. But I agree, that the second trade was difficult to take.

	Quote:	Dogpile
	When there is any doubt, best to just go with the daily bias --- ie, when there is no major morning buying/selling tail indicating a reversal --- just trade in the direction of the value migration. If VWAP > VWAP[1], stay long biased. If VWAP < VWAP[1], consider the short side or look for a 'b' type of profile and a higher low to get long.

I think that the breakout day on 10/5, followed by a 'b' shaped profile yesterday, and the higher value today helped me maintain a long bias. I wouldn't rely solely on value migration for a bias. Not sure if you're saying that you would.

[Dogpile]

<<Why did you think that that level would provide strong resistance given the other conditions you mentioned (b shape, higher value, etc)?>>

I was thinking about that Sep 19 PVP and wrongly equating it to the 10/5 PVP.

The 'b' that formed low in the 2-day range and 'lack of seller conviction' led me to be cautious about shorting. But the failure to re-test on Monday confused me a bit. I was a day off as I was thinking re-test the high yesterday and when it didn't, that Friday afternoon high looked like an excess high to me (bull trap). But you are right, that played out on Monday and the 'b' Monday profile and higher value being built was not something to fight. I haven't been trading futures much lately -- the real action has been in the sector rotation setting up interesting opportunities in individual stocks.

[ant]

Thanks for the explanation Dogpile. Do you scan for stocks or are you working off of some "bigger picture" theme?

[Dogpile]

<<Do you scan for stocks or are you working off of some "bigger picture" theme?>>

Scan. I basically have adopted the 15-min First Cross Buy to stocks -- so looking for a few days of downswing and then some upward range expansion off opening price to trigger. This works well when the market is rotating.

Here are a few examples: