Crash course into MP

[Northern boy]

	Quote:	ammo
	you never know if its a trend day until the market closes,but if it gets to the next nip and the bounce doesnt bounce much and you have left several single traded prices, a wide cleavage,chances are it will drop to next nip,you should be prepared on those days with daily trendlines drawn that you can easily refer to so you know where to get in or out of a position since it picks nips or trendlines for major support and you wont know which til after the fact

thanks Ammo. next time I get layed I'll be thinking of value areas and points of control... and i'll probably go long .

[ammo]

there is a tl from 3/17 to 6/12 that is 1337 on es ,if we break that there is another at 25 and another at 17,37 was also fri low and 36 todays

[darthtrader2.0]

	Quote:	Northern boy
	Or if you have ideas of how to anticipate volatility outside MP maybe you can post it here or PM.

I kind of have a speculation that if you look at the shape of the intraday volatility surface of SPX options and how its changing that it will give away exactly what kind of day to expect on the futures because the guys that move the markets are too big and the options markets too illiquid for them to not show that card.
How to actually view that card, I haven't a clue yet though.

[ammo]

there is a recent book out by lawrence McMillen that covers that subject,how to read the cboe put/call ratio

[alleyb]

A simplistic way to look for early identification of a trend day is the amplitude of the brackets together with the degree of retracement. For example in the Dow (or ym if u prefer) if the market has moved more than 34 tics in a straight line and the retracement is 3 to 4 tics then the chances of a trend day are increased dramatically. This was once expressed as being no more that 4 time brackets in a market that is not breaking rotation where the profile looks like a long and thin (as opposed to a fat) profile. Some like Don Jones at Cisco would state that you need to know where you are in relation to the previous 3 days value, others like Bill Duryea at IOAMT would suggest 5 days, others still like the Turtles would state look at 20 days etc. What all of these people misunderstand is that markets are dynamic and they are using static time intervals. You have to use the information given by the market and if that is 18 days rather than 20 so be it. IE look for the unfolding distribution (and this applies to virtually any time frame..... IE for those for example who would say but I can't scalp my 1 minute chart off a 3 day value etc take note). The reality is that trend days are frequently born out of a small early range frequently non trend in nature and not faciliting trade that then explodes into life and catches people off guard. In reality the market trends approx 22% of the time today rather than approx 12% 20 years ago brought about by computer algorithms that only seem to know the go with the momogogo momentum breakout

[alleyb]

I did a presentaion on June 6th that was for one hour but ended up being 3. (nothing unusual in that when I get involved. lol) It was such an interesting day that it necessitated the extention. With SoulTraders pre-acceptance and permission I place the link here. I urge you to spare the 3 hours needed for it was one of the most interesting days we have had for some time
http://www.tradingclinic.com/oneoff/...l20080606.html

[forsearch]

Alex,

Just curious if you've addressed this question already here or else where....

What exactly are your thoughts of the Soc Gen trader, le petit garcon, Jerome Kerviel?

Let us know since you have the experience to render a more nuanced opinion on it...

Thanks,

-fs

[alleyb]

foresearch: He thought he was bigger than the market whether with or without upstairs or even on the desk approval. That organization felt that they could always push the market around and what was demonstrated was a total lack of culpability and risk management

[firewalker]

	Quote:	alleyb
	In reality the market trends approx 22% of the time today rather than approx 12% 20 years ago brought about by computer algorithms that only seem to know the go with the momogogo momentum breakout

Could you point me towards the source of those statistics? I'm interested in this, since I've found the market to have much more 'trending' tendencies last couple of months compared to last year...

[alleyb]

firewalker the stats come from my own database or data warehouse as I like to refer to it