[GCB]

According to the U.S. Small Business Administration, over 50 percent of small businesses fail in the first year and 95 percent fail within the first five years. It's interesting that this 95% number matches the infamous number of overall losing traders.

The problem I have with this stat is that it probabably includes every yayhoo who ever threw $3000 into a futures account and blew it out in a week.

The stat I'd like to know is out of all traders who compiled well-thought-out, detailed, written trading plans, what percent wins. Or, for every trader who has traded for more than 3 years, what percent wins.

The 95% stat may be a solemn warning, but it also may be innappropriately discouraging. It seems that, according to the statistics, if you become a trader you have roughly the same chances of success as if you start a small business in general. That's actually encouraging news to me.