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Old 01-22-2007, 07:06 AM
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Re: Fibonacci Pullback Strategies

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I love the whole "universal numbers" that govern the heavens and the earth aspect of Fibs. I also like Murrey Math for the same reason. They are interesting concepts to think about and in some ways connect one to the greater whole. Trading, however, is a different story.

My main problem with Fibs was when to apply them. I will give a brief tale (example):

Price is in an up trend for last 10 periods. On period 11 price closes down. I ask myself, " Is this the start of the retrenchment? One down period does not a retrenchment make." The next period, price again closes lower. Now two periods down is obviously more than one, but are we in a pull back ? The 2 period pull back doesn't seem like much at this point. So right now, I will wait to see what happens. Now this is the kicker. On the next period, price trades down then closes on its high and higher than previous period. I read in a blog, or hear an analyst on CNBC say, that price in this market retraced 38% intra period and closed higher as all the people watching that key level entered. I thought I was one of them, but I never got to put the FIbs on. Looking back at the chart it becomes clear. I call my broker for a price fill some time in the past, and they hang up on me.

Maybe it's just me, but things like that are one reason why I don't use Fibs. When I did use indicators, you can believe they all had periods of some length like 3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89..... .......... or Music Math numbers like 8,16,32,64. Dynamic support/resistance levels like those of Market Profile came to my rescue.
Im not a HUGE fan of fibs either. But just build your own set of rules on when to apply fibs to your trading setup. Maybe they do not fit into your trading concept. I personally do not use a ton of fibs on the daily charts but with intraday swings I may apply them. I know several excellent fib based traders... fibs are accepted by many traders just like pivot points and market profile. Which is why they simply can not be ignored. Just my 2 cents.

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