Wow. I feel like I have just come home out of the cold. This site is great. Thank you Soul-trader.
When I first hear
Mark Fisher speak, he mentioned his Pivot Range as being a close approximation of Market Profile. This set me on a course I am on today. I already knew the "power" of Market Profile but did not have access to the necessary data. Would it be possible to get some of the same information just using High, Low, Close? Mark says his Pivot Range is about 90-95% the same as what Market Profile interprets as the
Value Area.
Enter the PivotProfile. This is my tweaked version of Mark's Pivot range. I use this to get Market Profile-esque information:
**Yellow line: Point Of Control.
**Value Area True (Value Area (t)): upper purple (Reaction Range High) to lower purple line (Reaction Range Low). This is where 70% of price action took place.
**Value Area Absolute (Value Area (a)): upper pink line (Deviation Range High) to lower pink line (Deviation Range Low). Approximately 60% of price action takes place within this range. This range is also closest to Mark's Pivot Range.
** Upper thin blue line (Extended Range High) to lower thin blue line (Extended Range Low) is the FairValue Range. Here we have roughly 85% of the price action. This is not all that important. Those that use the initial balance formula to create opening range extensions, however, know the .85 number.
** The upper thicker blue line (Yesterday's High) to upper thin blue line (Extended Range High) create the upper UnFair Value Range. This is basically the tail of the distribution curve. As you may well know, this area, especially the high, then to be rejected prices. The lower thicker blue line (Yesterday's Low) to the lower thin blue line (Extended Range Low) is the lower UnFair Value Range.
To be clear, this is a chart of Friday's trading in the Euro. The Profile here was done at the close using only Open, High, Low. Red vertical line on the 30 denotes the end of Thursday/start of Friday per CMS @ 1700 hrs. These levels would then be used for Monday's trading. Friday gave us a nice full and Perfect Profile. They all do not come out like this, as we are using a static equation. That is, sometimes there is only on purple line. If this happens, then the
Value Area (t) would extend from the purple line (assume upper) to the Lower pink line. One reason for this is the underlying hypothesis. These ranges/lines represent areas where price did trade and find support/resistance or some sort of reaction. In other words, unlike Floor pivots that are based on the concept of regression to the mean, these lines are support and resistance BECAUSE THEY WERE SUPPORT/RESISTANCE during the previous day. Thus, if the equation would cause a line to be outside of the actaul trading range, it is not plotted. This is at the heart of Market Profile. And why Market Profile support/resistance levels tend to work better than typical pivot levels.
Time and Time again price touches the previous day's
POC (yellow Line). If it does not, when we have a Virgin (naked)
POC. The 80% rule trade works well also. That is, according to Market Profile, if price exits the
Value Area (t), and then re-enters, 80% of the time price will trade to the opposite end of the
Value Area (t). Some may note that the color scheme looks like the Price Histogram used by Enthios.com at
Price Histogram . Basically, there is a way to "visualize" Market Profile without actual Market Profile charts.