My "Blackjack Strategy"

[brownsfan019]

Pivot - my idea here is not clear apparently. The analogy of playing the blackjack hand the same time, every time was to simply say - be consistent in your trading.

The actual breakdown of this being a blackjack analogy is irrelevant in what I was attempting to convey. You can substitute blackjack for rummy, dice, dominos, horseshoes, corn hole, lawn darts, etc.

The point that I tried to convey and fell short was to simply say - you need to 'play' your hands consistently, whether in trading or at the card table. You cannot one hand hit on a 12 and the next hand not hit that same 12 and expect to come out ahead. Odds are, you will lose twice. I understand there's always exceptions to the rule, esp for the pro's, but until you reach that level, consistency is key. And I proved it to myself - I took the high score rather easily by simply applying very, very simple rules. As you know, I am a big fan of keeping things simple. I think there's a lot of unnecessary over-analyzing that goes on when people trade or play cards. It's almost as if we want things to be much harder than they might be...

[cooter]

You've got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk way, and know when to run
You never count your money, when you're sitting at the table
'Cause there's plenty time for counting, when the deal is done.

- The Gambler, Kenny Rogers

[TRex]

Professsional traders don't gamble, they speculate when the probabilities are in their favor.

Philosophically, we can get into broad discussions about how life in general is a gamble, etc., etc. but none of that is going to help us become successful traders.

[Reaver]

I am no expert, but by definition, if you are not a discretionary trader, then you should take all setups that come along.

By trading a mechanical system you are in essence forfeiting the factor of discretion in your trading...

However, if I were kicking some major butt at the beginning of the week and had already exceeded my target.....Even though I know I am not technically supposed too....If I for some reason just wanted to relax, I maybe would take the week off...because technically in your business plan you have exceeded your target so you are meeting your expectations....but logically, and by definition, I would also know that I SHOULD take every setup that presents itself, as that by it's very nature is how a system is supposed to work.

The Kenny Rogers song applies only to discretionary traders, IMO...for a system trader-knowing when to hold, fold, cover, go long, or whatever has no bearing......it is all about what the system says to do....

[brownsfan019]

Originally Posted by TRex Professsional traders don't gamble, they speculate when the probabilities are in their favor. Philosophically, we can get into broad discussions about how life in general is a gamble, etc., etc. but none of that is going to help us become successful traders.

Ok... thanks for sharing.

As I attempted to state, the thread has NOTHING to do with the act of gambling. It was an ANALOGY.

[TRex]

Originally Posted by Reaver I am no expert, but by definition, if you are not a discretionary trader, then you should take all setups that come along. By trading a mechanical system you are in essence forfeiting the factor of discretion in your trading... However, if I were kicking some major butt at the beginning of the week and had already exceeded my target.....Even though I know I am not technically supposed too....If I for some reason just wanted to relax, I maybe would take the week off...because technically in your business plan you have exceeded your target so you are meeting your expectations....but logically, and by definition, I would also know that I SHOULD take every setup that presents itself, as that by it's very nature is how a system is supposed to work. The Kenny Rogers song applies only to discretionary traders, IMO...for a system trader-knowing when to hold, fold, cover, go long, or whatever has no bearing......it is all about what the system says to do....

Which came first, the system or the plan? My trading plan takes precedent over my methods, but those methods are incorporated into the plan. A thorough plan should never leave a trader wondering if he is done for the day or should trade more. Also, it's one thing to have a well-defined plan and quite another to have the discipline to implement and follow that plan.

[Reaver]

Originally Posted by TRex Which came first, the system or the plan? My trading plan takes precedent over my methods, but those methods are incorporated into the plan. A thorough plan should never leave a trader wondering if he is done for the day or should trade more. Also, it's one thing to have a well-defined plan and quite another to have the discipline to implement and follow that plan.

I was referring to the definition of a system, which is set up to override things like discretion. Choosing to do something is also referred to as discretion.

Therefore if you are not a discretionary trader, then you follow your system no matter what, or else you are not trading a system. At this point you are what they call being discretionary.

In trading, you can pretty much do whatever you want to do, which is why most fail. Therefore you can take a week off if you CHOOSE to. And if you are making enough money, you probably wouldn't notice the difference...but are you supposed to? No. You are not supposed to as it defies the logic of your non-discretionary system which is based on statistics to do so.

If I make $100,000 a year trading, a bank will loan me the money to purchase a $70,000 car. Is this the most intelligent thing possible? No. of course not. Can I do it without really suffering major repercussions? Yes, more than likely.

Like Brownsfan said- it is about consistency, and yes you are supposed to take every setup your system provides if you are a system trader. Otherwise you are toying with the statistical edge your system is supposed to provide in the first place.

[brownsfan019]

Originally Posted by Reaver Like Brownsfan said- it is about consistency, and yes you are supposed to take every setup your system provides if you are a system trader. Otherwise you are toying with the statistical edge your system is supposed to provide in the first place.

That's all it's about Nate. Trex's comments are a bit cryptic...

In the end, the numbers do not lie and if your system has the edge, you trade it regardless of current feelings, P&L, etc. in my opinion. That's all this thread was about that Trex dug up that was 3 months old.

[Reaver]

Originally Posted by brownsfan019 That's all it's about Nate. Trex's comments are a bit cryptic... In the end, the numbers do not lie and if your system has the edge, you trade it regardless of current feelings, P&L, etc. in my opinion. That's all this thread was about that Trex dug up that was 3 months old.

Yeah I wasn't sure exactly what to say in direct response- but I tried to focus on the basic question. lol

[cooter]

Originally Posted by Reaver Yeah I wasn't sure exactly what to say in direct response- but I tried to focus on the basic question. lol

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