Are You a Gambler?

[brownsfan019]

	Quote:	BlowFish
	Not sure how your customers where made up Brown (investor trader whatever) but I think the widely quoted figure (which seems to vary from 80% to 95%) comes from brokerages who find that xx% of there actively accounts get run dry/ closed/ go dormant whatever. 80%+ of small business' fail in there first year is that relevant?

Once again, how the metrics are being built is being overlooked.

While many new businesses fail in year #1 (and are documented by the US small biz administration), how many are successful after year 1? How about year 2? and 3?

And where is this information published by brokerage firms? If this was in fact true, why would they publish it as car said? Point is there's never been anything published from a verifiable, reputable source.

The point is and is being missed here is that you cannot lump all traders into ONE statistic and call this unverifiable statistic as relevant! Especially when the cost of admission is literally $2500. You can open an account today for $2500. How can you possibly assume that the person that opens a $2500 account to 'see how it goes' is the same as a person that has a $50k account and has taken a business ownership position?

That's like me saying that 95% of all traders that use VSA fail.

Anyone care to dispute that?

I have nothing to back that up, but sounds about right to me.



Same thing here. No verifiable statistics to support this notion and even if this was in fact truth, you cannot lump all traders into ONE metric.

Are there any other stat's lovers here? Anyone?

While the numbers do not lie, how they are constructed can easily be...

And if you do not analyze your numbers as well as what is spoon fed out there, I highly suggest you get off that train. Not only should you challenge all metrics and stats provided to you, you should have stats of your own personal trading. Again, something that separates the biz owner vs. the hopeful.

I'm actually shocked a few here would just buy into this notion just b/c... a book writer trying to sell books said this? OK, great, prove it. A brokerage firm said this? First, why would they? Second, where is this info?

As soon as some reading this learn to think outside the box and not buy into what the vendors are selling you, the sooner you can reach the next 'segment' of trading.

And if you honestly believe this statistic, then the last thing on Earth you should do is TRADE. Why would you knowingly go into a biz where the success rate is so pathetically low? If you believe this 'fact' car, don't bother trading. You've already set yourself up with a perfect excuse for why you couldn't cut it. You can just tell people '98% fail and I was just part of that statistic' or 'the markets are obviously against me since 98% fail, so I am going to move onto something else' or 'if the markets weren't rigged against the little guy, I know I would make money'...

[Reaver]

Word homes. Word.

[Reaver]

The way I see it....since we are on the subject of gambling and playing probailities..why the hell would you bother trading against 90-95% odds?

I agree with you Brownsfan....if I believed that 95% of traders failed....that would be some horrble odds to be playing...not a good start for a trader

I think that 95% of people who don't treat it as a business fail...that is to be expected...just like any other punter....but out of those that are intelligent and genuinely have discipline and a drive for excellence...no, I believe that many more than 5-10% of those individuals succeed.

[aiki14]

	Quote:	Reaver
	I think that 95% of people who don't treat it as a business fail...that is to be expected...just like any other punter....but out of those that are intelligent and genuinely have discipline and a drive for excellence...no, I believe that many more than 5-10% of those individuals succeed.

I have to agree with you, I also believe if you are disciplined and intelligent in your methodology you CAN prosper as a trader. But I also believe if you are not you WILL fail. Can one get lucky? Sure, but consistant prosperity requires consistant discipline. I believe that to be an axiom.

[carcanaques]

With all due respect to brownsfan and Reaver, I think there's more here than you are addressing. And I also think you guys are digging in your heels because you're not in the losing category and feel as though you want to defend your turf. It's absurd that anyone who writes a book on trading is going to titled it "Don't Even Think About Trading Because The Odds Are Enormously Against You." On the contrary, the vast majority of trading books hold out the carrot that anyone can turn $10k into big money by pitching "proprietary" indicators, war stories from very well publicized traders like Paul Tudor Jones, George Soros, and so on. People aren't interested in buying books that go against their egos and inflated self beliefs, I think.

In fact, most people who embark on a trading career are very intelligent people who were successful in the prior occupations--doctors, lawyers, engineers etc., and think they can simply apply those traits to trading and bingo, the money flows in. And that is the rub. THE PEOPLE WHO ARE GETTING INTO THIS BUSINESS WERE IN THE TOP 10% OF THEIR FIELD AND SO THEY WERE VERY CONFIDENT THINKING THEY WOULD ALSO BE IN THE TOP 10% OF PROFITABLE TRADERS. It's not like they said, "damn the odds are stacked against me, so why should I bother?" On the contrary, they believe that all they need is a good computer, a few seminars, books, trading software program and the big money will roll in.

All of these people are aware of the 90-10 "rule" and it doesn't faze them one iota. They believe if they apply the same traits that made them successful--hard work, experience, and perseverance--they will not make the mistakes of other who have failed. And despite all the testimonials that there is no Holy Grail, new traders think they are smarter and with enough tweaking, they will find it. In short, what makes them fail is their own EGO and false beliefs about the market.

More to follow.......

[Reaver]

	Quote:	carcanaques
	With all due respect to brownsfan and Reaver, I think there's more here than you are addressing. And I also think you guys are digging in your heels because you're not in the losing category and feel as though you want to defend your turf. It's absurd that anyone who writes a book on trading is going to titled it "Don't Even Think About Trading Because The Odds Are Enormously Against You." On the contrary, the vast majority of trading books hold out the carrot that anyone can turn $10k into big money by pitching "proprietary" indicators, war stories from very well publicized traders like Paul Tudor Jones, George Soros, and so on. People aren't interested in buying books that go against their egos and inflated self beliefs, I think. In fact, most people who embark on a trading career are very intelligent people who were successful in the prior occupations--doctors, lawyers, engineers etc., and think they can simply apply those traits to trading and bingo, the money flows in. And that is the rub. THE PEOPLE WHO ARE GETTING INTO THIS BUSINESS WERE IN THE TOP 10% OF THEIR FIELD AND SO THEY WERE VERY CONFIDENT THINKING THEY WOULD ALSO BE IN THE TOP 10% OF PROFITABLE TRADERS. It's not like they said, "damn the odds are stacked against me, so why should I bother?" On the contrary, they believe that all they need is a good computer, a few seminars, books, trading software program and the big money will roll in. All of these people are aware of the 90-10 "rule" and it doesn't faze them one iota. They believe if they apply the same traits that made them successful--hard work, experience, and perseverance--they will not make the mistakes of other who have failed. And despite all the testimonials that there is no Holy Grail, new traders think they are smarter and with enough tweaking, they will find it. In short, what makes them fail is their own EGO and false beliefs about the market. More to follow.......

I see your point in that respect. They basically think that just because they are good at what they do, then they are on fire no matter what they do...Kind of like me saying that just because I'm a good trader, then I could also just take couple piano lessons, grab a book or two, and then drop by Carnegie Hall to make a few performances while sitting back waiting for the fame and recording contracts to roll in? Am I tracking here?



I agree with you there, I was viewing it only from the perspective of someone who is making this their prime focus in life.....

[carcanaques]

Well, you exaggerated in your analogy, but yes you got it.

[jperl]

I love this quote about trading. Don't know where I saw it, but I think there is some truth in it for newbies, no matter how big your account is.

"Want to get to $1 million in 12 months as a trader. It's easy. Just start with $2 million."

[Reaver]

	Quote:	carcanaques
	Well, you exaggerated in your analogy, but yes you got it.

whatever you say, TJ Hooker

[Nick1984]

Who's TJ Hooker? LoL Ignorant post for the day award goes to me!