POSTS #22 TO #30 of this thread have been moved from the VSA II thread to here as they were not of much relevance to the application of VSA - Mister Ed.
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Bearbull - I have pulled this one paragraph out of all your recent posts as it summarises the very important point of the context, or background, against which 'signals' (for want of a better word) occur, and as you say is a point important not only to VSA, but also to Candlestick analysis, and other methods. Thanks very much for re-emphasising this important point, nice series of posts. |
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I like Bearbull's post as well. However, I should point out that what is or is not relevant depends in large part on what the trader is trying to accomplish, which in part is what I was trying to say to winnie. Defining a "no demand" bar is vastly easier than defining "support" and "resistance", or "demand" and "supply". Not only is it easier, it is necessary if one is going to code a signal into software. Perhaps this is why the focus of
VSA is so different from the Wyckoff material on which it is based.
What so many newcomers to
VSA don't understand is that a "no demand" bar means "no demand"
at that time, and that the lower prices that the bar implies may occur for only a couple of bars. It does not mean that price is going to plummet 10 or 20 or 30 points in the next five minutes. Therefore, if one is interested in scalping, finding these bars may be just the thing, and
VSA may be everything he's ever hoped for. However, if he's looking for something that points to larger moves,
VSA may not be quite up his alley, since that larger move depends on features that are not quite so easy to define, such as "background", and from there, it's just a step or two to "feel".
Therefore, one must evaluate
VSA in terms of what it is, or at least in terms of what it has become, and not expect it to be what it isn't and can't be. Bearbull has done a nice job of highlighting the difficulties that those who are looking for more than a few ticks or points are going to face, particularly those who lack the displine to stop themselves out, much less SAR, when the trade does not move in the desired direction.