|
Quote: |
|
 |
|
|
Doesn't it look like we had a double bottom confirmed now?
I mean, this week the NQ broke much higher, the ES is back to 1400 and the DOW almost to 13000... |
|
|
|
|
I posted this a week ago, without little response. I take it most people probably thought I was talking rubbish, because I'm inexperienced or so.
Dbphoenix replied to this post with a chart showing a red down trendline. In the meantime we are above that and we are above the 200-moving-day average, the Nasdaq is close to 2000.
In other post dbphoenix mentioned the small caps aren't participating in this move.
Ok, so here's my thing -and I'm trying to be neutral here- it looks like traders on this thread or looking for elements that support their "bear case", but it's just not happening.
We are moving higher, the DOW Transports is almost making new highs, all major US indices have gone up significantly yesterday. And when the DOW made a test of the March low, the Transports made a Higher Low! If all of this isn't important, well than I'm screwed.
I have to understand why I am having so much trouble trading lately, I've been on the wrong side all of the time. Been focused on shorts heavily. When everybody is talking about how bad the economy is and how deep a recession where going to get, it's all been priced into the market. All the bad news hasn't had ANY effect on the markets lately.
Someone posted 'the sentiment cycle' here. I think it's clear that we are near the end, and not in the denial phase.
With sellers gone, the market even goes up on bad news. Rallies are labeled as ‘technical bounces’ or are written off as ‘short
covering’. Short positions add more on every bounce, confident that lower prices are around the corner. When good news trickles in, it is summarily dismissed as aberrations, subject to revision next month.
Despite all the wise and knowledgeable people out here, frankly, I'm surprised why everybody is denying to see what's staring at them in the chart. Perhaps everybody was thinking we were going to have a bear market like 2000-2002 but as far as I can see it, there was a much bigger distribution pattern than the one we had at the end of last year.
___