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Old 04-30-2008, 10:11 AM
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Re: Question About Time & Sales

Tape reading is nothing more than monitoring the current price action and asking: Is the price going up or down right now?

Even the most novice observer has the ability to see that prices are moving higher or lower at any particular moment or, for that matter, when prices seem to be going nowhere or sideways. (Markets do not always have to be going somewhere!) It is also fairly easy to watch a price go up and then tell when it stops going up - even if it turns out to be only a momentary pause.

If you can learn to follow the price action, you will be two steps ahead of the game because price is faster than any derivative. You may have heard the saying, "The only truth is the current PRICE." Your job as a trader will become ten times easier once you accept this. This means ignoring news, opinions, and personal biases.

When watching price, the first thing we want to know is how fast, how far, and in which direction. It takes two points to measure these things. One will always be the current price, the other a "reference point”.

"The study of responses ... is an almost unerring guide to the technical position of the market." Wyckoff

The second is to watch for the market's response to a particular condition, i.e., to anticipate a particular behavior. For example, if the market has been at a very low volatility point and just begins breaking out of it's particular trading range, one might anticipate that the price would begin to accelerate in an impulsive manner and not run into immediate resistance. Or, on a directional play, if the price is moving in an impulsive manner in a trending market and then pauses to catch its breath on a mild reaction, one would expect it then to continue on in the direction of the trend. When there is a particular behavior to anticipate, it is easier to watch the price to see if it acts according to one's expectations.

Tape reading is not watching every trade that passes by (a monotonous task) but rather keeping an eye out for unusual impulsive action, unusual volume, or just observing the way the price trades at significant levels. Each price swing has forecasting value as to what the next most immediate move should be. We then follow the price action to see if that move plays out. (Linda Bradford Raschke)

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