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Old 04-13-2008, 06:47 AM
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Day Trading With Short Term Price Patterns and Opening Range Breakout: Tony Crabel

A trade taken at a predetermined amount above or below the open of a given day is called an opening range breakout.

The hypothesis is that the NR 4 tends to precede trend day activity and consequently successful opening range breakouts.

The comparison of NR4 with any day shows a general increase in reliability for ORB after the NR4.

Percentages definitely suggest trending is taking place after a Doji that is also a NR4 day.

The hypothesis is that an Inside day (ID) that is also a NR4 tends to precede Trend Day activity. The assumption was made that the two patterns combined, which were both successful individually, would tend to produce even clearer indication.

All percentages were higher for the ORB after an NR7 than an ORB taken on any day.

Specifically, 2 Bar NR is defined as the narrowest two day range relative to any two day range within the previous twenty market days.

Three bar NR is defined as the narrowest three day range relative to any two day range within the previous twenty market days.

That there is a marked tendency for the market to trend intraday the day after the pattern has formed.

The bigger the gap, the more likely the market is to go in the direction of the gap. An ORB in the opposite direction of the gap becomes less profitable and eventually unprofitable the bigger the gap.

If the gap is not filled or if the market on the day of a gap cannot return to previous days range by mid session, the chance for continuation are high. Obviously, the larger the gap the more likely for this to occur. On a large gap ignore ORB against the gap unless it is occurring within the first 5-7 minutes.

As a rule, trades taken in the direction of gaps should be done cautiously and in coordination with other information.

Evidence clearly suggests that Opening Range Breakout trades are not something that should be taken every day.

Bear hook is defined as a day in which the open is below the previous days low and the close is above the previous days close with a narrow range relative to the previous day. As implied by the name there is a tendency for the price action following a bear hook to move to the downside.

Bear hook days have provided clearer indications than bull hook days in general.

Bull hook is defined as a day in which the open is above the previous days high and the close is below the previous days close with a narrow range relative to the previous day. As implied by the name there is a tendency for the price action following a bull hook to move to the upside.

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