[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part II

[BlowFish]

Glad you enjoyed it Gary. If you have a moment I'd be interested to hear what you particularly liked or better still any really valuable lessons you might want to share!

I presume you have a methodology based on VSA already? Are those trades you would have taken prior to the symposium did it just give you more confidence?

EDIT: PS second trade you didn't have your stop under the test bar? Did you have it way back under the swing low before? Just wondered how you handled price moving against you a couple of bars later.

[Gary]

Hi Blowfish -
The symposium was organized around the 10 principle signs of weakness and 9 principle signs of strength that are discussed in the Tom Williams book and in the TG software. There were very detailed discussions with several examples of each principle, and this was quite good. There was lots of discussion on supply and demand and how this is seen in the principles. It wasn't just about price bars, but what is going on behind the scenes, so to speak. I came away from that portion of the seminar with a good understanding of the different types of strenghts and weaknesses and why they appear when they do - much better than what I thought I knew when I went in.

The second day was spent on applying these principles in trades. Tom Williams did a presentation on how and when to combine the principles for high probability trades. This was basically the way has traded as a syndicate trader and for his own account for 35 years. This was excellent. He is an awesome trader. Sebastian Manby seemed to tell everything he knows about trading and presented a highly refined way of trading with VSA that was simply brilliant. The two trades above were based on his refinements, which I didn't know about before. There was also a presentation on psychology and one quite good session on developing a trading plan with lots of important details, which I am completing.

There was also a lot of right edge chart analysis, and three different afternoon sessions of live trading in different markets. This was good to see the principles set up, and the actual trades. If anyone needed proof that this works so well and can be traded, there it was.

I'm just giving an overview and leaving a lot out, but this was highly professional. It certainly was the most complete and practical seminar I have ever gone to.

The stop on the second trade was under the low of the bar previous to the test/entry bar. This was still quite tight and gave enough room for that little dip. Putting it under the swing low would have been more risk than I would have wanted and not really neccessary.

[Bearbull]

Gary, having seen the videos, I thought the short trade setup should be taken after a buying climax i.e SOW, upbar on high vol, why did you choose to go short after a downbar on high vol.
Also any particular reason why the first trade is on 10min and the next one , a long setup on a 3min.

[BlowFish]

Thanks, for taking the time to reply in detail. I'm glad it was valuable to you. I must say I was a wee bit sceptical as any companies first loyalty is to the shareholders. Having said that you can can count on Tom and Sebastian to deliver.

[Gary]

The short trade setup was taken because there was weakness in the background. There was no strength. One trade set up on a 10 minute chart, the other on the 3 minute.

During the seminar they turned off the software indicators. They didn't talk about the software and try to sell it. They put out a high quality product with this symposium in my opinion.

[winnie]

Dear Sir,
I am really new to VSA method, and find it seems very useful in confirming signal in my Market Profile Analysis. Is there any books or material , I can learn some basic idear about such method ?

Thanks for all your kind help

[Eiger]

	Quote:	gassah
	Hi Eiger, Your first attachment has a minor creek drawn across the 3/20 region but I have to disagree that this was a jump of that minor creek ... The markets may continue to rise but the range depicted is not one of those classic bullish ones taken out of the SMI/Wyckoff course. It looks more like trading range activity ...

Hi Nic,
Thanks for the reply. I agree with you that this market has not had a classic bullish response as per the SMI/Wyckoff Course. We talked about the lackluster response earlier.

I think the main point is that the rallies all have been stronger than the reactions since the Spring in mid-March. You can be right and this may turn into a trading range (though I think the Dow and Naz indicies suggest otherwise). In any event, I am not trying to pick a top. When there is a significant SOW and the market next rallies on weakness, I will be first in line to shout BEARISH, but not until then. To me, confirmation is important and this market has continued to confirm the upside.

The bears have been suspect of the market from before the outset of the current rally and have made bearish calls at any temporary weakness. Unfortunately, they are trapped by their bearish bias. Bias is killer for a trader (do I ever know about that!). Brett Steenbarger has posted some useful ideas today about self-assessment at the end of the quarter. In one of his comments, he suggests that traders ask themselves the following:

Have I adapted well to market changes? How have my markets changed over the last quarter, and what did I do to adapt? Which of those adaptations do I need to emphasize in the next quarter? Which further adaptations can I make next quarter to deal with market changes?

All traders should undertake this type of periodic self-assessment. Those who found themselves consistently on the wrong side of the market in this recent rally might find particular utility in this excercise.

I have not seen real weakness on the intermediate term. Maybe yesterday was the start of it, but maybe it will just give us a repeat of April 30. I don't know. Right now I remain bullish, and the stocks I bought lower down - for the most part - are doing fine. Do let me know, though, if you see any Grizzlies roaming about

Eiger

[Gary]

There was a nice emini trade that set up this morning after the down move started. On the 10 minute chart there was a weak rally and no demand. The 5 minute had a great top reversal to confirm. I like using the different time frames to set up trades like this.

[Sledge]

Gary-
Thanks for sharing your charts! I need to get back to posting a few in this thread again as well. Have any entry/results on these trades you want to share?
Sledge

[Tasuki]

Just a quick chart of QQQQ. Today's action looks like "no demand" to me.
Taz