[VSA] Volume Spread Analysis Part II

[Sledge]

JJ-
Fair enough. I know some folks have asked to have "live edge" trading examples if at all possible. I figure if it was "I'd take no position" accompanied by reasoning for such- would be a benefit to anyone trying to navigate through this muddy time on the GBP.

You are correct that the Asian session is always the slow time in the Cable market, but if Tom Williams states that "The professionals never sleep" I can only assume that we must give some weight to the movement- no matter how little the volume is.

Sledge

[brownsfan019]

	Quote:	Sledge
	Ok VSA'ers-- I have a riddle for all of you. Posted below are (2) charts a GBP/USD 1 Hr and a GBP/USD 4 hr. On the 1 hour chart you see a nice WALL of resistance around 1.9705. Indicative of a market rise is coming. On the 4 Hour chart you see an upthrust after a nice start to the downward move. Which is indicative of further decline. So if you were to take a trade looking at these charts. Would you go long? Or would you go short? Looking forward to how everyone reads and analyzes this to come to a conclusion! Attachment 5959 Attachment 5960

Ok, this is just priceless.

First - no responses from anyone even taking a stab at whether you go long or short here.

Second - the fact that the question is - should I go long or short here - just emphasizes how arbitrary this VSA stuff really is. It's either a long or short and it should not be hard to figure out which one IMO.

I have NO IDEA the answer to your riddle, but it sure is entertaining to read yet another post in this thread about whether to go long or short...

This VSA thread is quite the interesting read from afar. Seems like a lot of the blind leading the blind... is anyone actually using this stuff in real-time? If so, where are they at?

I just can't get over the 'do I short or go long here' posts... If that's difficult, good luck managing your stops and profit targets.

[Sledge]

Bf-
Well I actually posted this so that people could attempt to answer what they see. I wanted to spark some conversation about what people saw and how if they were faced with this chart- what would their move be?

JJ stated he would take no trade.
I happened to go long but CAREFULLY long

I wouldn't say that because it failed to spark the conversation I hoped for, that VSA should be written off as a form of technical analysis.
Sledge

[brownsfan019]

	Quote:	Sledge
	Bf- Well I actually posted this so that people could attempt to answer what they see. I wanted to spark some conversation about what people saw and how if they were faced with this chart- what would their move be? JJ stated he would take no trade. I happened to go long but CAREFULLY long I wouldn't say that because it failed to spark the conversation I hoped for, that VSA should be written off as a form of technical analysis. Sledge

I guess I don't understand how you can't tell if you should go long or short. That's about as elementary as trading can get - long, short, no action - and throughout this thread there are examples of people not sure which one to do! And it's all about VSA.

From an outsiders view, that would say this VSA thing isn't nearly as clear as some may think it is, ESPECIALLY in real-time. And in the end, that's all that counts. After the fact charts do not put real $$$ into an account.

[Sledge]

	Quote:	brownsfan019
	I guess I don't understand how you can't tell if you should go long or short. That's about as elementary as trading can get - long, short, no action - and throughout this thread there are examples of people not sure which one to do! And it's all about VSA. From an outsiders view, that would say this VSA thing isn't nearly as clear as some may think it is, ESPECIALLY in real-time. And in the end, that's all that counts. After the fact charts do not put real $$$ into an account.

I wasn't asking for personal advice. I saw a nice real live situation present itself while I was flicking through my timeframes and said- Hey this would be a good lesson for others to try and figure out as well.

Since it was a real-time, live edge chart(s)- my basic question was if you were sitting there, you saw what I posted, what would you have done? I may have gotten a range of answers such as:

A. I'd wait for a higher volume downward move through the 1.97 area and confirm to go short
B. I am a scalper and I would have used the 1 hr chart to go long, watch the bars form and manually exit.
C. I would have done nothing since their was low volume and it was the Asian Market.

It was more of a curiosity as to what others see when looking at the very same information. I made my trade, banked $ and was happy. Guess I thought others may have seen it totally different and taken their own path.
Sledge

[jjthetrader]

	Quote:	Sledge
	I wasn't asking for personal advice. I saw a nice real live situation present itself while I was flicking through my timeframes and said- Hey this would be a good lesson for others to try and figure out as well. Since it was a real-time, live edge chart(s)- my basic question was if you were sitting there, you saw what I posted, what would you have done? I may have gotten a range of answers such as: A. I'd wait for a higher volume downward move through the 1.97 area and confirm to go short B. I am a scalper and I would have used the 1 hr chart to go long, watch the bars form and manually exit. C. I would have done nothing since their was low volume and it was the Asian Market. It was more of a curiosity as to what others see when looking at the very same information. Guess I was just curious. I made my trade, banked $ and was happy. Guess I thought others may have seen it totally different and taken their own path. Sledge

Sledge, just ignore BF. He comes in once in a while to stir it up and tell us all we can't possibly make money with what we're making money with. I post some of my trades, Eiger posts his trades, Tawe posts his trades. All making money.
It must just be slow in the candlestick corner today so BF steps out of his comfort zone. I'd much rather hear BF gives us some constructive advice because from what I hear he's a good trader and uses volume with candles.

If you ask what to do about a trade there really only are 3 things to do, long, short or step aside. I didn't see my setup in your example Sledge so I would have sat on the sidelines.

Sledge, the pros that control cable do sleep

[trader273]

	Quote:	Sledge
	Well I actually posted this so that people could attempt to answer what they see. I wanted to spark some conversation about what people saw and how if they were faced with this chart- what would their move be?

How is this even an option? Shouldn't people using VSA come to the same conclusion? I do not see how one person could come up with a short, all the while someone else, using the exact same methodology, come up with a long, then another trader comes up with a stay out of the market. That makes no sense. I guess using this logic, VSA will always be correct. But the problem is that doesn't mean the trader using it will always be correct. If the same methodology can come up with exact opposite answers to the same question, it just shows that there is a major flaw in the methodology.

[DbPhoenix]

	Quote:	trader273
	How is this even an option? Shouldn't people using VSA come to the same conclusion? I do not see how one person could come up with a short, all the while someone else, using the exact same methodology, come up with a long, then another trader comes up with a stay out of the market. That makes no sense. I guess using this logic, VSA will always be correct. But the problem is that doesn't mean the trader using it will always be correct. If the same methodology can come up with exact opposite answers to the same question, it just shows that there is a major flaw in the methodology.

While I agree that VSA writes a lot of checks that it can't cash, you're being somewhat unfair. What you're suggesting is analogous to all candle traders trading the same patterns in the same way with the same targets in the same timeframe with the same candle interval and coming up with exactly the same results. And that's nonsense.

While I may think that any given "VSA trade" may be silly and completely extraneous to the VSA concept, this is not to say that every person trading VSA must trade it exactly the same way. One can't say this about VSA anymore than one can say it about candle traders.

[jjthetrader]

	Quote:	DbPhoenix
	While I agree that VSA writes a lot of checks that it can't cash, you're being somewhat unfair. What you're suggesting is analogous to all candle traders trading the same patterns in the same way with the same targets in the same timeframe with the same candle interval and coming up with exactly the same results. And that's nonsense. While I may think that any given "VSA trade" may be silly and completely extraneous to the VSA concept, this is not to say that every person trading VSA must trade it exactly the same way. One can't say this about VSA anymore than one can say it about candle traders.

I agree with DB for the most part. I'd also add that actually trading VSA is a much different beast than just knowing the methodology. Figuring out your own style within the methodology will be different from everyone else. Sledge may go long on a 1hr bar and I may be short within that 1hr bar on a 3min chart just looking for a small move. We're both using VSA and we're both going in different directions. It's like a Zen Koan.

[brownsfan019]

Quote: