Trend Day Confirmation

[brownsfan019]

	Quote:	walterw
	lol Brown... but I got a nice lifestyle... I repeat, it is possible, its about wisdom, faith and experience... market its like women... you have to live with one to real understand how they think.... cheers Walter.

I couldn't agree more which is why I am saying that I am saying - there is no bullet proof way to know if you are trending or not.

Just like a woman - you have no idea what you are going to get sometimes... Just when you think you have it pegged, you are quickly reminded that you can be wrong rather quickly.

[walterw]

Brown : epistemologically "bullet proof" would be wrong to say... no trader can tell 100% the market climate... but for example in this very moment march 21 12:35 est what is the market climate... you can ask my doughter, she is 11 years old and will tell you : "papi el mercado esta muerto" ("daddy market is dead") so.... we are on cycle conditions... you see, there are reasons, big boys are not there... they are waiting fed numbers... so that gave me today a couple of cycle trades and made me almost three argentinean standard salaries... thats what we refer to "market climate"... in an hour and a half we will have a diferent climate.... probably trending.... so if I go with my cycle trade... I will get mowed... what can I do then... trade trend trades, buy bips, sell rallys.... just common sense Brown, and experience... cheers Walter.

[Anonymous]

	Quote:	brownsfan019
	......And of course - knowing that we are in a trend or not is just ONE part of the equation. The next part is when to exit... But I suppose if you know when we are trending you will know when the trend is over vs. a brief rest or pullback.

The two are mutually exclusive. That is, it is possible to know that we are trending and NOT know when it will end.

Many people buy tops and sell bottoms because they recognize trend but cannot "predict" the end of the trend. BTW, Prediction is not neccassary, but that's a discussion for another thread.

If the market is making higher Pivot or Swing highs and making higher Pivot or Swing lows, the trend is UP. The magnitude in price and time cannot be known but the trend itself can be defined.

If trader x buys just as the market retraces, well timing and trade management come into play, not trend definition.

How did you do on the Last big sell off in Feb? I suspect you did well. Why? Because pretty early on you realized being a seller for the day made more profit sense. In short, you knew the trend/momentum was down and you did not want to fight it.

I know you use candle patterns particularly reversal signals. But you also have said that reversal signals should be taken when there is a trend to reverse. Hence you must therefore be able to detect trend. Did I read this wrong?

I would say the first hour stuff only sets a bias that can on can not be true. However, what price actually does-higher high during the day tells what the trend is. And that can be seen on a chart.

Lastly, Known the trend and creating a profitable strategy do not go hand in hand. Knowledge of the trend direction does not solve all the psychological issues involved in trading. You can see trend and still not have a "trader's mind". Thus, just because you know the trend does not mean your P&L goes thru the roof.

[The Bear]

	Quote:	walterw
	Brown : epistemologically "bullet proof" would be wrong to say... no trader can tell 100% the market climate... but for example in this very moment march 21 12:35 est what is the market climate... you can ask my doughter, she is 11 years old and will tell you : "papi el mercado esta muerto" ("daddy market is dead") so.... we are on cycle conditions... you see, there are reasons, big boys are not there... they are waiting fed numbers... so that gave me today a couple of cycle trades and made me almost three argentinean standard salaries... thats what we refer to "market climate"... in an hour and a half we will have a diferent climate.... probably trending.... so if I go with my cycle trade... I will get mowed... what can I do then... trade trend trades, buy bips, sell rallys.... just common sense Brown, and experience... cheers Walter.

I still don't see what this has to do with his original question. What he said was How, if possible, can one predict a trend day before the day completes. What you said here was like my previous post. A guy looking at his charts, patting himself on the back because he had a profit day AFTER THE FACT. Any after the fact thinking has absolutely nothing to do with what he asks.

[The Bear]

>The two are mutually exclusive. That is, it is possible to know that we are >trending and NOT know when it will end.

I think we should re-word it guys. It's possible to know that we WERE trending.

[walterw]

Bear : we did explain the HOW , just read on previous posts.... you got a be good interpreting the first 15 - 30 min... cheers Walter.

[torero]

I don't predict but use measured move from a pattern to identify a trend and a length of that trend. Case in point, a breakout from a triangle, I expect it to be a beginning of a trend. If I'm wrong, I get stopped out, end of story. If it is a trend, then I have a length of trend in mind where it would go to. I don't know if it does but I know the probability that it will make it and not make it. This is the best I've seen and learn.



Let's take today's action and the chart above. I assume everyone agrees that ER2 (and possibly other eminis) are trending yes? I see it trending because it broke out from a double-bottom pattern. From past learned knowledge and experience, the measured move of this trend to go to 825. Will it go higher than 825? I have no idea. I know the higher probability that it goes to 825, after that, I have no stats to back my position so I exit before hitting the target. So I identify the trend early on when it breaks from a major/significant support or resistance level.

Now, if it breaks down before reaching 825, I have one clue to let me know that it may not make it and that is when it fails to make a higher high and starts showing a lower low. This tells me to either tighten my stops or just exit all together.

I know I'm being verbose but hopefully the message is clear.

[The Bear]

	Quote:	torero
	I don't predict but use measured move from a pattern to identify a trend and a length of that trend. Case in point, a breakout from a triangle, I expect it to be a beginning of a trend. If I'm wrong, I get stopped out, end of story. If it is a trend, then I have a length of trend in mind where it would go to. I don't know if it does but I know the probability that it will make it and not make it. This is the best I've seen and learn. Let's take today's action and the chart above. I assume everyone agrees that ER2 (and possibly other eminis) are trending yes? I see it trending because it broke out from a double-bottom pattern. From past learned knowledge and experience, the measured move of this trend to go to 825. Will it go higher than 825? I have no idea. I know the higher probability that it goes to 825, after that, I have no stats to back my position so I exit before hitting the target. So I identify the trend early on when it breaks from a major/significant support or resistance level. Now, if it breaks down before reaching 825, I have one clue to let me know that it may not make it and that is when it fails to make a higher high and starts showing a lower low. This tells me to either tighten my stops or just exit all together. I know I'm being verbose but hopefully the message is clear.

I totally get what your saying here. I think similar to you too. But when he says the word 'trend day', I think he's referring to those kind of days (bullish for example), where little to no significant pivot lows get violated. The kind of huge range days like the big drop day on the dow. The open and close are close to the extremes of the range. I think this is what he's referring to as a trend day. They don't come that often.

There are many days like the one you posted where there are significant trends intra-day, but the day may end up as a doji. I didn't know you were considering these as trend days.

[The Bear]

	Quote:	walterw
	Bear : we did explain the HOW , just read on previous posts.... you got a be good interpreting the first 15 - 30 min... cheers Walter.

Interesting analysis, but it doesn't work for me, for the markets I trade. I always watch the times you say, and the pre-market, but for me market movements start to trend at anytime of the day and end at anytime of the day.

[torero]

If you look at the daily and 60min charts on ER2, it looks like a trend day. It may start slow but it did linger and not breach the support it made early in the day (at least I wouldn't take any short this morning, no clear signal at all, up or down). To me, any day where there is no break of support and moves continued higher highs (bullish) is a trend day. Unless we all have a different definition of a trend day, then he'll need to clearly show an example.

Charts please, I can't explain without charts and I don't understand concepts without charts. Trying to figure out what IT IS without charts is like blind leading the blind.