Real Time Price Action- Clue to Puzzle?

[DbPhoenix]

Unless you define and test whatever it is that interests you as a setup, then you cannot expect to do any better over the long run than a coin toss. Posting that you were "right" four days ago about a return to this level doesn't do you much good if you have no setup to take advantage of it.

[zeon]

	Quote:	DbPhoenix
	Unless you define and test whatever it is that interests you as a setup, then you cannot expect to do any better over the long run than a coin toss. Posting that you were "right" four days ago about a return to this level doesn't do you much good if you have no setup to take advantage of it.

That's why I posted it, I seem to be having a much better understanding of price on a higher timeframe than intraday.

Like I said before, the setup I described used to work much better than lately. Yesterday however it would have led to a profitable trade. Today it wouldn't have. Perhaps putting an extra filter on it like the one I mentioned "not after a breakout" could help me get something better than a coin-toss.

[zeon]

	Quote:	zeon
	Es 1349 1357 1362 1367

One change: 1362 -> 1364

Price also spent some time in the 68-71 zone this morning. However that was premarket and on very thin volume, I'm not so sure how much importance one must give to that level.

[DbPhoenix]

On the ES, 1370 is the primary S/R level.

[zeon]

	Quote:	DbPhoenix
	On the ES, 1370 is the primary S/R level.

Here's a close-up of why I mentioned 68-71.

[zeon]

	Quote:	zeon
	One change: 1362 -> 1364 Price also spent some time in the 68-71 zone this morning. However that was premarket and on very thin volume, I'm not so sure how much importance one must give to that level.

A very exciting day, almost all of the levels I wrote before the day opened led to a (temporary) reversal in price. I should probably write, a reaction. 1367 after the open, 1371 in mid-day and 1364 near the close! During the day I observed price flying off 1367 up 10 points, basically in no time. I have no idea why anybody, other than taking a quick gamble would enter there though. It doesn't look like as if price stays long enough around that level...

Next is 1371 in mid-day. Unfortunately going long there would be against the trend, there was a breach of the trendline and a secondary high in place (which wasn't really a lower high), but more importantly the swingpoint at 1374 was broken so the last swing low was breached. Going long for that reason would be going against the trend.

Finally, there was a nice reaction off 1364 one hour before the bell. Djee, who could've imagined that it would rally to 1371 in the final minutes. The reaction of 1371 was very swift and quick, but going long there would be going against the trend too.

To sum things up, I had three long signals today, all of them were invalidated because the uptrend was no longer in place. However, if I leave trend out of the equation I'd have at least one profitable trade. Over the long run this doesn't lead to anything more than a 50% chance of winning on a trade though. The quest continues...

[zeon]

Levels for today:

1379
1372.50
1366.25
1359

[heretodaygone...]

what i see

strong support - 1359-1360
levels - 1367, 1374
strong resistance - 1377

[zeon]

Action observed so far: a strong rejection of 1368 (at the time of news), and price traveled all the way back to the opening low. It reversed again there but on apparently not much selling pressure and made a marginal higher low. After that it started drifting upwards. The next potential resistance levels to watch out for are 1372 and 1379.

[Tannism]

I am practicing identifying support and resistance and notating. (Thanks for the examples Db at http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/blogs/dbphoenix/33-support-and-resistance-and-trading-trend.html)

Both charts seem to show areas of consensus with attempts at breaching both directions.