Real Time Price Action- Clue to Puzzle?

[heretodaygone...]

	Quote:	erierambler
	On the ES , I'm looking at 1338, 1319, and 1309. I'm going to be away from my home computer for the rest of the week, will only be able to check in from a remote computer in the early mornings. Back on the weekend. Good trading all..... will be following along.... erie

I have 1328,1335 as resistance, also a squeeze zone between 1315-1318 so I don't anticipate that to be key support. Key support imo, should come in around 1306-07 with major support at 1300-01

[DbPhoenix]

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A quickie chart of the ES:

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[zeon]

Question here, one of the last posts before I open a blog - promise.

Support drawn = pink line.
Price is breaking below support, volume retraces on the way back up and forms an upthrust. I shorted (bar in yellow rectangle)! The volume seemed okay and the bar closed off the highs, suggesting supply is coming into the market.

This is kind of my problem, despite how much time I spend analyzing the market in real time I'm often confronted with something that happens that's not "according to plan".

Sorry for the crappy chart, Bigcharts doesn't show premarket data.
A similar situation is visible on the Nasdaq.

Got me here

[zdo]

	Quote:	zeon
	volume seemed okay and the bar closed off the highs, suggesting supply is coming into the market. ... despite how much time I spend analyzing the market in real time I'm often confronted with something that happens that's not "according to plan".

zeon,

Think fast - I’m going to sling some Mark Douglas at you
“Anything can happen” and
“What happens if you take this setup 30 times?”

…same applies to the ‘frustrating’ trade you posted the other day (over in VSA2 I think)

zdo

[brownsfan019]

	Quote:	zdo
	zeon, Think fast - I’m going to sling some Mark Douglas at you “Anything can happen” and “What happens if you take this setup 30 times?” …same applies to the ‘frustrating’ trade you posted the other day (over in VSA2 I think) zdo

Well said.
Just b/c a setup failed once, means nothing. Any type of trading requires hours and hours of screen time and testing to validate any statistical reference.

0 for 1 is nothing.

[zeon]

	Quote:	brownsfan019
	Well said. Just b/c a setup failed once, means nothing. Any type of trading requires hours and hours of screen time and testing to validate any statistical reference.

	Quote:	zdo
	, “Anything can happen” and “What happens if you take this setup 30 times?” zdo

Yes guys I'm aware of this. But I had always assumed this to be more valid of the mechnical approach. Not that I'm striving for 80-90% win rate or so, but I thought that by correctly learning to analyze the market, I'd be in better shape to understand these things.

So everybody agrees that on what I observed? Perhaps I can take comfort in that, but sometimes these things just sweep my off my feet and I'm like "eh, how could this happen?!"

[DbPhoenix]

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First chart provides context. Each of the next two shows the first and last half of the day.

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[heretodaygone...]

"Believe nothing just because a so-called wise person said it. Believe nothing just because a belief is generally held. Believe nothing just because it is said in ancient books. Believe nothing just because it is said to be of divine origin. Believe nothing just because someone else believes it. Believe only what you yourself test and judge to be true." - Buddha

[DbPhoenix]

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For today.

I keep looking for ways to make this clear to others, but perhaps there's no substitute for multiple examples.

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[zeon]

	Quote:	DbPhoenix
	. For today. I keep looking for ways to make this clear to others, but perhaps there's no substitute for multiple examples. .

I don't think I quite understand your chart though. If I am understanding this right, there is no support below 1720?

I took a trade on the ES today, but because your chart was the NQ so I'll post the setup here too. The same thing occurred on the NQ anyway so it's all the same. Your last rectangle was 1700-1710. I had support around 1707 actually, so around the mid of that. Then almost exactly one hour into the session price went down on heavy volume (see qqqq chart) and broke that support. The next bars were all small and on low volume, a retracement right? So why does price rise then? I fear I am losing touch with reality here.