Real Time Price Action- Clue to Puzzle?

[DbPhoenix]

	Quote:	zeon
	Apparently at a very high level compared to yesterday's close. That must have caught a few people out.

Not if they did the prep. Price opened at the high of the range I posted above. Therefore, the initial tactic is to fade it and see what happens.

[zeon]

	Quote:	DbPhoenix
	Not if they did the prep. Price opened at the high of the range I posted above. Therefore, the initial tactic is to fade it and see what happens.

I meant that people who didn't have a stop in place or so, must have been pretty pissed right now. Otoh, those who were long from yesterday evening had a bit of luck...

Anyway, I faded and shorted the ES from 1306. There was an upthrust according to my chart just before the open and I just closed out at 1297 for 9 points.

[zeon]

	Quote:	DbPhoenix
	Not if they did the prep. Price opened at the high of the range I posted above. Therefore, the initial tactic is to fade it and see what happens.

By "see what happens" do you mean that you never have a target in mind? I closed out my short now although there wasn't really a selling climax in place. I normally exit on volume spikes or when price is bouncing off support. And it looks like it's reacting off support now. I believe I followed my plan and executed it properly. But in the end, by doing so and despite all the profitable trades, the net profit isn't that big because my losers are in comparison to my winners about half as big. You could say at least I'm making profits but over the long run it's not quite what you expect from trading. Perhaps I should be happy with whatever the market offers, but somehow I feel there's more to trading than taking 5 to 8 points on winners and lose 2 to 4 on losers. I wonder what the experience of other traders is in that aspect. Apart from some textbooks that claim your winners should always be twice as big as your losers, I wonder how it is for other trades in real life.

[DbPhoenix]

	Quote:	zeon
	By "see what happens" do you mean that you never have a target in mind? I closed out my short now although there wasn't really a selling climax in place. I normally exit on volume spikes or when price is bouncing off support. And it looks like it's reacting off support now. I believe I followed my plan and executed it properly. But in the end, by doing so and despite all the profitable trades, the net profit isn't that big because my losers are in comparison to my winners about half as big. You could say at least I'm making profits but over the long run it's not quite what you expect from trading. Perhaps I should be happy with whatever the market offers, but somehow I feel there's more to trading than taking 5 to 8 points on winners and lose 2 to 4 on losers. I wonder what the experience of other traders is in that aspect. Apart from some textbooks that claim your winners should always be twice as big as your losers, I wonder how it is for other trades in real life.

If I'm selling R, my target is S unless there's a reversal signal in the meantime. Today, however, there are three distinct S/R zones from the previous day (and price in the NQ, at least, bounced off the first one), so the idea of reaching the bottom of yesterday's range is probably wishful thinking.

As to your plan and how you execute it, I can give only general advice, bumper-sticker style. If you're looking for more input into that, I suggest you open a blog and invite those whose opinions you value to follow it and perhaps post to it.

[zeon]

	Quote:	DbPhoenix
	If I'm selling R, my target is S unless there's a reversal signal in the meantime. Today, however, there are three distinct S/R zones from the previous day (and price in the NQ, at least, bounced off the first one), so the idea of reaching the bottom of yesterday's range is probably wishful thinking.

Yes exactly, sometimes the next S/R is pretty close and price reacts of that. But I think today I did the sensible thing by closing my short position. Around the time ES touched support the NQ did too as you say.

	Quote:	DbPhoenix
	As to your plan and how you execute it, I can give only general advice, bumper-sticker style. If you're looking for more input into that, I suggest you open a blog and invite those whose opinions you value to follow it and perhaps post to it.

I appreciate the input you've already given me and I'm sure others have benefit from the discussion too. Great idea about the blog, I'll think it over. Will have a look around the other blogs to see if they get some attention or not.

[heretodaygone...]

we seem to be testing a key accumulation area that I posted last night.

[BlowFish]

	Quote:	zeon
	... but over the long run it's not quite what you expect from trading. Perhaps I should be happy with whatever the market offers....somehow I feel there's more to trading than taking 5 to 8 points on winners and lose 2 to 4 on losers. I wonder what the experience of other traders is in that aspect....

Assuming that the win rate is 50:50 or maybe a little better, most traders would chew off their own legs to achieve those sort of results consistently. There is no 'holy grail' where you win 85% of the time while only risking 1 to make 10.

All you can ever take is what the market offers, well a portion of it anyway. If you are not happy with that you will always be disappointed. To be blunt it sounds like you have un-reasonable expectations. Not sure about what your win rate is, number of trades a day you take etc but it sounds like you should be abe to pretty much generate as much return as you could possibly desire if you can do that consistantly. I guess maybe then its not about generating a return but being 'right'. That is a very dangerous malaise in trading, I know that first hand.

Cheers.

[AgeKay]

I second BlowFish. The market doesn't care how you feel or how much you want to make. Make the best of what it gives you.

[DbPhoenix]

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For tomorrow:

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[erierambler]

	Quote:	DbPhoenix
	. For tomorrow:

On the ES , I'm looking at 1338, 1319, and 1309. I'm going to be away from my home computer for the rest of the week, will only be able to check in from a remote computer in the early mornings. Back on the weekend. Good trading all..... will be following along....
erie