Fibonacci Pullback Strategies

[torero]

	Quote:	PivotProfiler
	Please explain. If pivot is (H+L+C)/3 and 50% fib level would be from significant high to significant low (H+L)/2, how is this the same number? Are you speaking of a particular case, or are you saying it is always the same?

I'm not saying they are the same, but many times (days) they coincide or close to it, it's repeated over and over again.

Regarding your other question about fibs, sniper has mentioned they are guides and nothing more, they are not sure fire spots for entries. I place the levels on my charts, they don't mean anything until prices react to them, favorably or unfavorably. Like anything else, nothing is pure science so nothing works 100%. We all get faked out and stopped out even when we think it looks like a rejection, it turns and heads in the same direction and pierces the levels. It happens, but like I said, when there are more than 2 calculations coincide (be it VOP of MP with Pivot and/or Fib), chances are higher prices will react to them.

[Sniper]

Torero

Thanks for welcome me to the forum! I think what you have is a fib time ratios tool. The one I use is called "cycle finder" It calculates how many bar/candles are between the initial swing(a) to the retracement (c) I use to do that manually, now I have some charts that has this little tool. You can do it manually too, simply count how many bars from a-c and there you have it. If you had already an entry, let's say on C, and from A-C you have 13 bars, then it will give you an estimate time frame(13 bars) in which you can reach your target. Cycle finder helps you to stay on a trade longer. It's just a guide. Please remember there's nothing for certain in the markets. But it's a good helper guide, I've been using it for years now.

Pivot Profiler

As soultrader said at the beginning, you need to qualify the initial wave in order to have a valid fib. That's called a "swing filter" I don't know what you trade but for ER2 (my favorite mini) anything less than 40 ticks It's not for me.

Also for the swing filter, I try to avoid those that don't have minor corrections on the way. Sometimes I take them but that's another story.

Like I said, I don't know which market you trade. But if you don't have a swing filter , you simply don't have a valid fib . If your fib comes down and passes .786 area, then you have a broken fib.

Listen people, don't fall into a discretionary nigthmare like I did some time ago. If you like to be complicated and you're a mathematician who needs to be analytical and precise like a swiss watch in order to make money, well throw all kind of bells and whistles to the mix and my hats off to you. I sincerely respect that as not every trader posses the same personality. I like for my trading style to be simple and my charts to be as clear as possible.

If you're curious about fibs and after a while you decide they fit into your trading style and personality, my advice is to use them on it's pure and simple form. As they come.

PD: If anybody is familiar with trade navigator from genesis, I need a little hand, please. I am trying to do a screen capture but I can't find it anywhere.

Regards

[torero]

Hi Sniper, thanks for sharing your cycle finder. I'll try it out. You can find a free screen capture tool here:

http://www.faststone.org/DN/FSCaptureSetup52.exe

I use this one, easy, simple like you! LOL.

[Soultrader]

Hello Sniper

Very interesting concept with the time cycles. You are the first trader I have met that applies them to trading. Exit targets based on time.... very interesting.

As for keeping it simple.. I would have to agree with your 100%. Many traders begin with a mindset that complexity is the key to trading success. The day their trading turns around is the day they realize that trading is simple.. but not that easy. I like to keep my trading as simple as possible but adjustments need to be made when your setups stop working.

Sniper, if you need a screen recording or screen capturing software pm me. Best of trading.

[Sniper]

well, I finally found it.

Here's a chart of an actual trade this past Friday. Notice that there's was an earlier retracement to .382 area but I didn't take as it was 11:55 am. I avoid doldrums time at all cost. My entry was at 12:50PM, some sort of risky time for me but hey, you gotta be pushy sometimes.

Yellow vertical lines are cycle finder lines. As a rule I wait 2 cycles before taking profit. In this particular case, note that 2 cycle were passing closing time. I decided to take the 1st cycle as it was wide enough for a market play.

Notice that profit target was on a confluence of the fib extension, but the target failed. I pulled out at the end of the cycle. One of rules is not to leave any open orders before closing time.

[torero]

Excellent yet simple strategy, sniper! I see how you apply the time cycle. Very nice indeed!

[Sniper]

Here's a risky trade for today 1/22/2007 I enter off a pullback at .236 level, which means there was a strong downside trend As I don't know how long this trend will last I went in with 2 contracts. Notice how time cycles along with fib retracements played beautifully today. As you notice down on the charts, time of exit - 11:10 AM.

Regards

[Pismo10]

The biggest problem I have with Fibs is that I can justify just about any point on the chart using many Fibs of different highs and lows. So the big questions gets to be, which one of these many points is the important one......I have yet to figure this out.

[torero]

50% is the most important IMO. I used to use other areas, but it's not as reliable as this lelve.

I assume you know how to draw the top and bottom to make the levels. Go back and look, you'll be surprised how often it's stopped there. If it fails, then the trend is over and time to reverse positions.

[Soultrader]

Here is another fib retracement setup on the ER2. Unfortunately I did not see if until after the move

Great 61.8% retracement setup. Also on this day, 1/26/07... the TICK's started hitting 1000+ readings multiple times creating the impressive afternoon rally.