Andrews Pitchforks

[Tasuki]

Here's a valuable tip I just picked up from a free lecture by Tim Morge. He explains the proper use of Schiff and modified Schiff forks. See attached chart. To wit, you use these alternate calculations when you see a near-vertical move from A to B. If you try to use the traditional calculation, you'll find that the resulting pitchfork does not well-describe the price action, because the vertical move has thrown off the usual ebb and flow of market energies. Hope this is helpful.

[waveslider]

Tasuki,

FWIW, I think this is trying to force square pegs in round holes.

Why? Because the pitchfork isn't appropriate in all market environments, as some one here said - when it works, it works.

In the case you put up, just using a simple parallel channel would have worked just as well. Maybe its good to have that confirmation...

The channels seem to work best when pitchfork isn't.

By the way, nice WW going in ES right now - - a larger one with some room to move?

[swingscalper]

I'm relatively new to pitchforks and median lines (MLs). I've got some questions to turn to the experts on pitchworks and MLs here.

1) My understanding is that the effectiveness of technical analysis largely depends on the visibility of the pattern/signal. Pitchforks and MLs, in many cases (unless with confluence with Fib numbers and trendlines), are not that visible to the markets. Will this relative invisibility limit its effectiveness?

2) How often does the pitchforks/MLs set-up for intraday trading? Can it be used as a main tool for intraday trading? I've looked back the intraday data several months back and haven't found many good set-ups. If that is the case, then pitchforks/MLs are only secondary tools for intraday trading and their value are very limited with that regard.

I'm an intraday swing trader and I just want to convince myself that there are enough value in pitchforks and MLs therefore I can dig more into this subject. So far I'm not convinced. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Many thanks.

Swingscalper.

[psyogibottoms]

Well I'd be the first to say that they are definitely worth it. I've just recently discovered them, the AP that is, and have found it has been channeling forex pairs for me with great accuracy. If they slip out of range, it is usually because of my error and after a few moments I see the correction I should have made.

Still learning, but amazed at both how useful APs are an Gann Fans, though I'm still confused a lot on that topic. But the Forks are the bomb. IMHO.

PS Waveslider, I think if the fork had been drawn as Tasuki has mentioned earlier from the first mountain top in that triple peak, the corresponding fork would have nailed it. JMO - for what it is worth, and it seems like it would have been even more accurate.

[waveslider]

Hi Swingscalp, welcome to the forums, you too psyogi -

For your questions - -
1. Andrew's forks happen everywhere, and if you can't see one in market you are looking out, if you zoom out a couple of time frames you'll see it. The times that they don't work are in an accelerating trending market. Markets that are trending strongly don't swing so much, so price won't often reach the andrews target.
Are they a self fulfilling prophesy? Probably, particularly on the smaller time frames. I think there are plenty of pros using AP and trendlines/channels exclusively.

2. AP sets up all the time, at least once a day in ES I'd say on the lower timeframes. As you train your eyes by applying it, you'll see.

PSyogi - - In that chart I just posted it was a different pattern than AP, called a wolfe wave. Tasuki and I go on yakking about that on another thread. WW are more subjective and require a deeper level of understanding of market geometry.
I've been actively playing this particular pattern, it's working out pretty well.

[waveslider]

Here's one from friday.

In my thinking, the trade was validated.entry was at the crossing of the yellow line.

At each blue arrow there was further confirmation. The gold horizontal lines are pivot lows formed at price levels that were previously pivot highs in the preceding move downward.

I was in the trade at the last arrow (in SPY) when price was breaking above that range.

AP is very useful! Please post charts you see as valid so we can all benefit from the failures as well as the successes.

[waveslider]

Killer day for trading pitchforks.

Here's the SPY 3 min chart. There's even more on the tick charts - - -

1st pitchfork had VWAP as a confirmation target.

2nd pitchfork began at conservative 50% point.

[froggy]

Hello everyone (my first post here on the forum). I've been trying Pichforks for a couple of weeks and they're looking quite interesting. Only had 13 completed Pitchfork trades, with 7 successes and 6 losses, resulting in a small profit so far.

Do you think Pitchforks work best in particular markets? For example I'm mainly trying forex currently but have tried coffee (success) and wheat (loss), and I've got a dodgy-looking 5 minute downward pitchfork going on Euro Schatz bonds currently. Would you think forex is best for Pitchfork-based trading or individual stocks, indices, commodites etc?

[waveslider]

Froggy,

I think pitchforks work better in futures markets. Why? Because they tend to swing more (trend less) and are volatile. Any market that seems to "swing" more than trend is a pitchfork market.
In trending markets people use the pitchfork as a channel type tool. It seems to work alright, but I think drawing channels is just as effective. The pitchfork is designed to use market geometry to locate price targets.
Trending markets will accelerate as trend matures, and this means that pitchfork will not work so well (unless you like bent pitchforks, maybe for farmers in San Fran.). In trending markets, fanning channel lines is the best.
Just my 2 cents, hope that helps.

[froggy]

Thanks Waveslider - I take it that by futures markets you mean forex. You've probably helped quite a lot as I was thinking that trending markets would have been good for pitchforks as long as you catch the right pivots on a temporary downdrift (for, say, an upward trending market).