Andrews Pitchforks

[waveslider]

No, I meant futures...
Forex will trend more while futures tend to swing. I believe channels work best for trending markets because you can accelerate them.

[froggy]

Ooops! Sorry, I'm from England - possibly a bit different in terminology but Futures encompasses everything to me...stock futures, forex futures, index futures, bond futures, commodity futures etc. I might be wrong...again ...but do you mean commodity futures?

Apologies if it seems I'm being pedantic but any pointers in the right direction of what to concentrate on would be really appreciated - after a promiing start my pitchfork profit has diminished to zero so far, but I've been mainly concentrating on forex which it sounds like is probably the wrong way to go.

[Tasuki]

	Quote:	froggy
	Ooops! Sorry, I'm from England .

Froggy, FOREX refers to the foreign exchange currency markets, some of which have futures contracts derived from them. For example, the FOREX symbol for the Eurodollar vs the US Dollar is EURUSD, and its futures derivative is ECM08 (for the current front month futures contract).

Taz

[waveslider]

Hi Froggy, I guess I should have been more specific also!!

I meant specifically the e-mini futures (I am most familiar with them though I watch FOREX a lot).

The e-mini contracts have huge amounts of volume intraday and are used extensively by larger players as a hedging vehicle.

There is a ton of swing in these e-mini contracts, particularly the S&P e-mini which does have a tendency toward mean reversion than the others.

If you are just getting started, I recommend trading ONE emini contract until you can afford to trade TWO based on your EARNINGS. Sorry for the capitals, but its VERY easy to blow out an account in these markets because of their leverage and quick moves.

You may find a better futures market for pitchfork. What is remarkable about the S&P emini is the fact that it is used as a hedging vehicle, big players are not necessarily participating in it "naked" (without a corresponding hedged position). So when and where they decide to buy back a short position may not be "logical", but instead based on their model. For this reason (volatility) I see it as an exceptional market to find swings in..

Post some charts of how you are applying the pitchfork when you get time and we can see how your thinking is developing.

[namstrader]

Here is the YM today April 22. I see many pitchforks all the time.

This is from a 24H chart 5minute

[januson]

I've allways knew about AP, but first untill today I wasn't aware of the stong belivers in the fork.
I'm not stupid, and likewise all other I can see that AP is working or at least supposed to be working if they are applied after the tradingday ended.
Somehow it reminds me of technical analysis with simple trendlines, allways striving to get the past lows and highs into the picture.

Don't get me wrong, I really respect the work regarding AP etc., but to be really convinced and withhold a strong case here at TL, I think it would be very interesting to see the AP applied and followed! - Let's say for example a swingtrading 14 days or something like that.

Please... do not take my posting as a negative feature, I just want some enlightening

[Tasuki]

januson, if you need convincing, then investigate the work of Timothy Morge, and doubt no longer. Morge has TONS of free stuff on the web. Check it out.

[BlowFish]

Januson you might want to check the link provided in this thread http://www.traderslaboratory.com/for...tion-3804.html
this might persuade you there is some merit in the methods. The presentation is long but worth every minute imho.

[waveslider]

Januson-

FWIW here is my pitchfork analysis for SPY, along with some channel and cycle stuff.

There is a lot of chart art here, but what to notice are the circles which highlight the validity of this particular pitchfork.

The median line has acted as support once so should it be met again it will likely act as resistance. The retracement line (from the Oct. high to Mar. low) also acts as support and resistance.

There is still time for this counter trend up move to complete. This particular chart shows a target about 3.5% higher than today's close.

Tagging the 50% line of the down move and the upper channel line with a failed gap up sure is an attractive short. Everyone sees this, so if it should go the other way (up) it would spark a nice fast rally...

[Tasuki]

	Quote:	waveslider
	Januson- There is a lot of chart art here, ...

Wave, I can't see the pitchfork. Could you redraw with just the AP?
Thanks, Taz