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Rather than my getting into hindsight analysis, I suggest that those who are interested go back now and review the morning with an eye toward the long side and not the short. Look at what price is doing and look at what volume is doing in tandem. Set aside any notions of being tricked and focus on the flow of price and volume. |
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This isn't hindsight, because what I copied here is what I observed for myself at the time and typed in a text editor. I was however observing the 'extremes' (1825 and 1845) and not considering trading from the middle.
So price opened on huge volume which brought us straight back up to resistance (1845). It stalled there and reversed rather strongly (on the 5-minute chart the second bar takes up more half of the first one). However, volume recedes on the next bars and most of them close in the middle. Volume takes off further but there's a sudden reaction, apparently in the middle of S/R at 1835. The bar closes near the high.
Next is a strong reaction back up. At this moment I was thinking: if this moves back to resistance this could lead to a short opportunity. However there wasn't much suppy at resistance (only a short pause and notice the volume taking off, but price not going lower much => no effect). Next a wide range body, very wide actually on massive volume. Price goes up more than 10 points in 5 minutes. Wow.
Next 15 minutes are three tiny little bars, again on receding volume. A retracement. But how far will the retracement go. The next resistance is at 1865, but again going long here is trading in the middle of nowhere. If I were to considering long, I'd wait for a retracement back to 1845. But as I was thinking that, price went up quickly on confirmed volume.
And so right now we are at resistance, 1865. The demandline isn't broken yet and there's no lower high. So shorting this is not an issue. Going long now is very late imo, we've already moved 30 points in two hours. Like they say, flat is also an option...