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Re: 'Markets In Profile': Detailed Book Review
Let's looks at a recent 'Excess High' to demonstrate some of these concepts.
This is from March 12th:
March 11th was strong up day as seen in the hard afternoon buying which created an elongated profile. March 12th opened right on the previous days high. After a quick test down periods B & C (the first hour), buying came back in and pushed price materially above the previous day high.
Why would you consider shorting here?
Because:
1) You know that the first ~2 hours of the day are known to often show reversals (periods B-E).
2) Price trades above previous day high, creating the potential for a daily 'selling tail' to form. You do not KNOW at this point sellers will come in. But you know that this isn't a 'innvoator' or 'early majority' level for sure. This is 'asymmetric location' to short. If you are right, you will catch an auction down. If you are wrong, then risk is controlled.
On this day, laggards of the last auction met innovators of a new auction in period E. Period E is the 'Excess High'.
(it turns out that price pushed up into a resistance zone at 1336.50 and this was a natural 'reversal zone' to look for).
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