|
Quote: |
|
 |
|
|
Zeon, FWIW I think you read is spot on, you might want to filter trades like this with NYSE tick, I believe that is what Eiger does? These set ups can be tricky though and IMHO if taking it you would have to defend it to as much as 5 points below the lowest low so depending on where you enter it could make for a big stop. Trades such as these offer the biggest return but also the biggest risk as there is no confirmation as of your chart posting that there is a confirmed change in trend.
Just a suggestion you might wait for it to make a set of higher lows and then pullback on lower volume which could give you indication of a confirmed change of trend. You get less possible points but have more confirmation, pros and cons to each. The expectation would be that you could reasonably assume a retest of the resistance just made at 430-450. As it approaches this range you would like to see a burst of volume, Williams' would call it pushing up through supply ( the resistance range ) and then you would most likely get a pullback on lower volume where one could enter long again.
Hopefully this is helpful. Didn't mean to steal Eiger's thunder as I think he adds a lot to this thread and will be interested to see his response. 
P.S. As an important side note I believe, it's necessary to realize that all of these indexes are attempting to form an accumulation base on the daily and this can take a very long time so it's quite possible that the intraday trading can zig zag back and forth in a range. Paraphrasing Williams and Wyckoff accumulation normally take a lot longer than distribution. |
|
|
|
|
Thanks for a very informative post. I only mentioned Eiger because he asked me to post some charts, but I prefer posting charts live then get some older charts where hindsight analysis might be easy to do. In this case, I had no knowledge of what was coming after the "long entry". Your contributions or those from other people are certainly appreciated.
It looks like finally I might be getting somewhere. I agree that waiting for further confirmation comes at a disadvantage: a higher entry and less potential for profits. But so is the case in trading, the longer you wait the more convinced you are, but the less potential.
Also, you seem to agree that a re-test of resistance in this case is likely, so this is where my target would be. It remains to be see whether we'll get there, because at the moment price is back at 370 and not exactly in a hurry to go higher by the looks of it.
Finally, I'm also thinking this intraday action last couple of days is building up for another move higher. Glad to see someone think along the lines of what I'm thinking for a change