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Sledge:
I think the same: market "will DROP".
But "Timing" for short was some bars to early (now 5 to 6 bars)?
for my taste; this is what I - also timely - would say.
By the way, if trading short, with which scenario? where Stoploss? where Profittarget? etc.
An other question: which datafeed / market do you exactly use in your chart?
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W-
Platform is a Metatrader4.
As far as timeframe: I actually use a much larger timeframe to get a "feel" of the overall market first and then "drill down" It was much easier to illustrate the amount of volume and those bars significance using a 15 minute chart instead of say a 4 hour or Daily Chart.
Where you decide to enter the market or how many bars you use to make your determination is strictly a matter of personal opinion. Since I use a larger timeframe and know that I am looking only for shorting opportunities (presently,) I look for particular bars or sequences of bars- when they appear I am poised and ready. You may be different. I'm learning not to be scared to let a trade ride overnight or carry over past EOD. I only care about being right with the trend.
As far as target and stoploss- same trading personality traits apply. If you see $200 profit plop into your lap- do you take it and close out? Do you feel strongly enough in your analysis that you know you will eventually make $1000 on that trade? I personally "roll with the punches" If I'm in on a short and I have cleared 85-100 pips at EOD, I can do one of two things- either move my stop loss to protect capital or close out and look for another entry if I anticipate a pullback. As with any system you have to realize that it MUST be flexible. YOU must be flexible. Anyone who tells you that you bailed early and are a "wuss" is a moron. If you are happy with the trade- you are the only one who makes or loses the $. No person on a message board is going to pay your bills.
When I started trading I was a blitzing moron, I got in, grabbed 4 or 5 pips and closed out. I was trading 20-30 trades a day! I did well at it, but talk about mentally exhausted!
My best advice to you or anyone new trying to learn this is the following: Learn to read the bars, what do they tell you? What does that bar with its related volume tell you? Tom Williams isn't B.S.ing you when he says all you need to do well is a chart and volume associated with it! After a while- if you stick with one or two things you trade, you will get to know that instruments "personality" (i.e. how it reacts, how it moves.)
Hope this helps!
Sledge