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Ok, I have to ask (time to stir the pot) - as a lurker of this thread and reading some great things (esp DB) I have one question to ask...
Is anyone here actually using this in real-time and making money?
I see a lot of 'after the fact' analysis, which is fine for learning, but I'm really curious if anyone outside of DB can do this when it counts - real-time and real money...
Just curious, not meant to piss anyone off. |
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Actually, there's no "evidence" that I'm doing it either. Unless one hires a mentor who will sit with him day after day and show him how to trade one on one and stay with him until he has demonstrated that he can do it on his own, then there's really no other way to learn it than through the principles demonstrated through hindsight analysis.
Hindsight analysis is great for learning principles. That's pretty much what books are all about, whether the subject is trading or something else. And hindsight analysis is fine for backtesting, either manual or computerized.
But at some point, one has to test forward, one has to implement these principles in some sort of trading, preferably simtrading first, then real trading. He then learns whether the principles are theoretically true but practically -- at least for him -- crap. And if no one can demonstrate that these principles are in fact useful and useable, then he can assume that the "principles" are crap in the absolute.
So when someone can do nothing more than tell you what you should have done, you have every reason to be skeptical, just as when someone is vague and general and tapdances a lot. It has to make sense. It has to be logical. If it isn't, and it doesn't, then avoid resorting to faith, keep your wallet in your pocket, and continue searching.