ES frustration today

[Anonymous]

Harvard business study, 2000-2001, I believe:

Conclusion-the fewer barriers to entry into a certain endeavor, the greater
the failure rate.

Fewer people who go to med school and then a residency fail as doctors, but all you need to be a trader is money and a dream. How about astronauts (current events not withstanding) versus actors?

In short, where the weeding out process take place prior to becoming part of the established community the failure rate is less than where the weeding out takes place once you have joined the community.

[torero]

Very interesting post, pp. Good nice study that is totally true in this business where failure to be prepared produces high failure rate, simple. All doctors must be prepared before moving to on their profession, in trading, anyone without preparation can trade. True enough. I guess we can say this profession is more or less training on the job except we don't get paid doing it, but get penalized for doing it incorrectly.

[brownsfan019]

And the devil's advocate here...

It can be argued that those that drop out of med school after one semester 'failed' as doctors as well.

My point being that while the barrier to trading is simply cash, I would think that if you were to examine those that treat this as a full-time business vs. the 'hobbyist' your results would be very different.

A full-time business owner will:

• Realize this is a 40+ hour work week in the beginning
• Realize that creating a steady stream of income will take many months, probably years
• Realize that while any new business is difficult, you have to fight thru the most difficult times
• Take ownership for their business and blame noone but themselves

A casual hobbyist will:

• Think this is a get rich quick program
• Blame everyone, everything BUT themselves for failure
• Give up after a very short period of time

Now, if you were to track the stats of true business owners vs. hobbyists from the beginning, I believe the stats in the end would show the owners having a higher % of those in profit. Of course there will be owners that fail and hobbyists who happen to make it, but the majority will favor the owners in the end.

It's just frustrating to read a stat where everyone is lumped into one pile. I am not a casual hobbyist. This is what I do for a living. I trade. I don't do anything else for my income and wealth creation. Take my stats and put them up against someone that trades when they have the time and really don't need the trading thing to work out and I would venture to say that over the long haul, I'll still be here years from now when the hobbyist is off looking for the next get rich quick scheme.

I'm not disagreeing Pivot, just venting some frustration with how these calculations are done.

[Anonymous]

	Quote:	brownsfan019
	And the devil's advocate here... It can be argued that those that drop out of med school after one semester 'failed' as doctors as well. My point being that while the barrier to trading is simply cash, I would think that if you were to examine those that treat this as a full-time business vs. the 'hobbyist' your results would be very different. A full-time business owner will: Realize this is a 40+ hour work week in the beginning Realize that creating a steady stream of income will take many months, probably years Realize that while any new business is difficult, you have to fight thru the most difficult times Take ownership for their business and blame noone but themselves A casual hobbyist will: Think this is a get rich quick program Blame everyone, everything BUT themselves for failure Give up after a very short period of time Now, if you were to track the stats of true business owners vs. hobbyists from the beginning, I believe the stats in the end would show the owners having a higher % of those in profit. Of course there will be owners that fail and hobbyists who happen to make it, but the majority will favor the owners in the end. It's just frustrating to read a stat where everyone is lumped into one pile. I am not a casual hobbyist. This is what I do for a living. I trade. I don't do anything else for my income and wealth creation. Take my stats and put them up against someone that trades when they have the time and really don't need the trading thing to work out and I would venture to say that over the long haul, I'll still be here years from now when the hobbyist is off looking for the next get rich quick scheme. I'm not disagreeing Pivot, just venting some frustration with how these calculations are done.

Nice. I do see where you are coming from. Just a couple of things:

1. The calculation would include first year med students that fail. As the conclusion implies that more first years fail than do 4th year residents. This is what the weeding out is all about. Therefore by the time you get to professional level status, only the cream is left.

2. You are so correct. Anybody with some money and a dream can become a trader. Trader here is defined by the act of trading. Not the obvious skillful way one such as you goes about running a trading business. If more people had your sensibilities as they approached this endeavor, the rate might not be so high.

3. System sellers or not, any search of the various trading forums should lead you to believe far fewer people are making money than are not. There are so many posts out there from people looking of that one indicator or method because they are not profitable. System vendors pray on this to be sure, but they do not fuel the misconception. They don't really have too.

Based on the few posts I have seen from you, I believe you are one of the ones who has made it or will make it in this "game". Make no mistake about it though, that puts you in the minority. Regardless of what the actual percentage may be.

[brownsfan019]

Pivot - thanks for the kind words. Not to get all mushy here, but those are perhaps the most kind words I've ever received on a forum. As we stated before, you don't find many websites where that type of dialogue would take place. This forum appears to be more about quality vs. quantity, very different than other forums.

[torero]

I congratulate you both on your success and sharing your experience and opinions. Great to have you both here! Bravo!

[keymoo]

Guys, thanks for your thoughts. I think what I have learned from this is that I need to test things before implementing them no matter how good they sound in a book. Anyway, I thought I'd show you the other side of the coin and the necessity to be consistent. I took a very similar trade on the ES today where I was fading VAH, and a mid-pivot. I only fade mid-pivots when the distance between pivots is large, which today they were.

Anyway, my sell limit got filled at the top of a trading range, and then the market sat there for over an hour doing nothing. I should have got out according to the time-stop within 20-30 mins, but I decided this time to leave the trade to run its course. Of course, this time I got stopped out by buying the high of the day. Great.

So, the moral is, test, test, test.

[brownsfan019]

	Quote:	keymoo
	So, the moral is, test, test, test.

Test, test, test and then repeat the exact rules the same way each and every time. It's uncanny how the human mind works and that these 2 sample trades have shown doing the exact opposite each time would have turned a profit or kept the loss small.

I know that doesn't help with the loss, but hopefully this was a great learning experience for you and those reading the thread. The key is to be consistent in your trading. Jumping from one setup, indicator, etc to the next will not make you money over the long term. Once you have proven to yourself that the trading system you have works, then work it.

I think in the end it's all about confidence - if you are confident in your entry, stops and exit strategy, you can take the trades w/o hesitating. If you are unsure of your setups, then 2nd guessing will play with your mind all day long.

[wsam29]

best advice when a market frustrates you like it did to me last week, is take some time off.

I'm have not done a thing this week and will look back at the markets next monday.

[Soultrader]

Thought I'de jump in here to tell you guys that this is an amazing thread! Some really great stuff guys.

"The battle is won before it is fought" - Sun Tzu -

Build a trading plan and trade the plan. Also know when to break it or else you will be sitting duck when the markets do the unexpected. Enter only at price levels that you feel comfortable with the risk. Think risk only.. profits will handle itself alone. Observe, observe, observe!! Program your brain to recognize market patterns. Not candle patterns... but the overall pattern on a bigger picture. Learn to read what the market is telling you. This will significantly increase your odds for short term setups. It took me 2 years to be able to read the language of the markets (though I am learning EVERY single day). It's actually quite simple but takes alot of time to understand this simplicity.