ES frustration today

[brownsfan019]

	Quote:	keymoo
	Thanks for the comments guys, some great thought there. I guess I just need to test it. I don't mind taking a bit of heat, no problem if it happens right away. But waiting 30-40 mins with price sitting there doing nothing is not exactly a great momentum trade. If price had gone up I would have been saying to myself, great trade you got out with 1 tick profit instead of stop loss getting hit. Thanks for the comments.

Key - sounds like you don't even know if your setups need to be given 'wiggle' room or not. That's step 1 - prove to yourself that either a) my setups can take 30+ minutes to develop or b) they need to turn profitable soon (and how you define 'soon').

There's great advice in this thread, but it's ultimately up to you to prove to yourself the best way for you to trade.

[walterw]

Hey guys, if we cant manage a position I think that steak restaurant bussiness sounds good for a day job jejeje :p just kiding....


yea well I think the issue here its about timing entry and having a more competitive stop placement in relashionship with the trade`s potencial... I think the trade original concept its ok, maybe I would personally manage the entry timing in a very diferent way that could make you more relax during does 40 min and sit and wait... if my stop its more tight no need to panic...

anyway I believe this congestion conditions are no reason to close your trade prematurely, this lack of momentum happen all the time and it doesnt interfer with the markets overall performance...

[Anonymous]

I am more concerned with the return of my capital, than the return on my capital. --Mark Twain


I would add Mark Fisher's concept of time here as well. Time is the element most traders tend to neglect in trading. Mark recommends using both a money stop and a time stop.

If price is around the same place you entered after 15 minutes.......

It's time to get out.

If everyone else can get in at the same price you did, then how good a trade can it be, says Mark.

Timeframe traded obviously would be a factor. If you trade off of 3 min chart, then 15 minutes later your trade has gone nowhere, it is time to re-evaluate. On the other hand, if you trade off a 1 hour chart, 15 mins would not matter so the time is relational to the timeframe traded.

ACD really has some Market Profile concepts embedded within it. The concept of time in Market Profile is how we define market acceptance. That is why he says wait 15 minutes before taking the A up or A down. You want to wait for the market to accept the new "breakout" price. However, the longer price stays there, the more likely that price becomes entrenched in this accepted area. Market Profilers know this as Value and the Value Area.

The point, as a trader trying to take advantage of price movement, movement must be thought of in both price and time. Price movement is obvious. Time is less so. But if you go long at x time and x+15 price is still there, movement in terms of time is null.

I think of a hobo in New York who wants to get to Seattle. What is the best way for him to do that? Get on a train heading east and slowing down, hoping it will turn around and head west. Or get on a train moving west and picking up speed. Getting on a train going east, clearly isn't the best. Nor would getting on a train that is pointed west, but still in the station 2 hours later. The hobo wants a train both pointing west and picking up speed (distance X time).

Time in a trade represents risk. For the hobo sitting on a train that is going nowhere is added risk. If he gets caught, then he gets kicked off and taken to jail. Therefore, there is less risk associated with trains that are moving. The longer the train is stagnant, the more chance an employee will wonder onto the car he is hiding in.

[keymoo]

	Quote:	PivotProfiler
	I am more concerned with the return of my capital, than the return on my capital. --Mark Twain I would add Mark Fisher's concept of time here as well. Time is the element most traders tend to neglect in trading. Mark recommends using both a money stop and a time stop. If price is around the same place you entered after 15 minutes....... It's time to get out. If everyone else can get in at the same price you did, then how good a trade can it be, says Mark. Timeframe traded obviously would be a factor. If you trade off of 3 min chart, then 15 minutes later your trade has gone nowhere, it is time to re-evaluate. On the other hand, if you trade off a 1 hour chart, 15 mins would not matter so the time is relational to the timeframe traded. ACD really has some Market Profile concepts embedded within it. The concept of time in Market Profile is how we define market acceptance. That is why he says wait 15 minutes before taking the A up or A down. You want to wait for the market to accept the new "breakout" price. However, the longer price stays there, the more likely that price becomes entrenched in this accepted area. Market Profilers know this as Value and the Value Area. The point, as a trader trying to take advantage of price movement, movement must be thought of in both price and time. Price movement is obvious. Time is less so. But if you go long at x time and x+15 price is still there, movement in terms of time is null. I think of a hobo in New York who wants to get to Seattle. What is the best way for him to do that? Get on a train heading east and slowing down, hoping it will turn around and head west. Or get on a train moving west and picking up speed. Getting on a train going east, clearly isn't the best. Nor would getting on a train that is pointed west, but still in the station 2 hours later. The hobo wants a train both pointing west and picking up speed (distance X time). Time in a trade represents risk. For the hobo sitting on a train that is going nowhere is added risk. If he gets caught, then he gets kicked off and taken to jail. Therefore, there is less risk associated with trains that are moving. The longer the train is stagnant, the more chance an employee will wonder onto the car he is hiding in.

Very eloquently put PivotProfiler. That is precisely the reason I got out of the trade. However, I should slap my own wrists because I have not tested the time-stop theory for myself in backtesting (too much system backtesting to do), but I do like the theory of it. However the risk in this case in getting out was that price moves in the direction I was positioned in once I have gotten out. The risk in this case is opportunity risk, and in this business we need winning trades to make money, right?

I would be interested in what you have in your own trading plan with regards to time-stops. Would you share? Perhaps have a chat over skype or something?

Thanks!
keymoo

[trader273]

	Quote:
	If price is around the same place you entered after 15 minutes....... It's time to get out.

Ok, Ill play devil's advocate here. What is so special about 15 minutes. Why not 12 or 23 or 5. Is 15 just picked out of the air. Also, the word "Around" is open to interpretation. Is it 1 or 2 ticks in either direction of your entry. Or is it 3 ticks.

No offense is intended, but just because you read it in a book, doesn't make it a sound strategy.

[brownsfan019]

	Quote:	PivotProfiler
	I am more concerned with the return of my capital, than the return on my capital. --Mark Twain If price is around the same place you entered after 15 minutes....... It's time to get out.

First - if you are only concerned with return of capital, then active day-trading is the completely wrong business to be in. Buy CD's at your local bank where they are FDIC insured.

Second - time stops are a viable strategy if it works for YOU. Pivot you are making some very specific recommendations w/o knowing the OP and his trading methodology. To say that after 15 min's you must exit is a very specific recommendation after looking at one chart. I say that exiting based purely on time is for amateurs and if you turn a 'winning' trade into a loser, then your full losses are going to destroy your account real quick and the OP's initial post proved this very well. Is a trade a 'worse' trade simply b/c it takes 50 minutes to hit the profit vs. 10? My account shows the same $$$ regardless of how long the trade took.

Here's another example from today on the EC (today was a great day for this discussion to come up) - at 9:22am EST I took a short. My 10 tick profit was hit and that's a cool $125/contract. Not bad. Here's how the trade played out though - at 9:53, 9:55, AND 9:59 my stop was ONE tick from being taken out. I just assumed this trade was done for a loss. But, the stop was never taken out and the profit target hit at 10:44am. That is one hour and 22 minutes later. Talk about taking heat and wanting to hit that flatten button so quickly... Again, my account balance simply shows a winning trade for +$125 per contract traded. It does not care that it took over an hour to deliver. The stipulation here is that I KNOW that my trades can take this long to develop. Does it suck? Sure. Is it a great feeling when you follow your rules and pocket the gain? You bet!!

My point being that EACH person must test and trade according to what works for THEM. Nobody, myself included, can tell the OP what is best here. We do not know him, his methodology, his account size, his stomach for pain, etc. etc. Since we will never know him personally, the best advice for him to follow is test your trading yourself, paper trade in real time and then make a solid rule - either exit after XXX minutes or wait till stop or profit target. If you opt for the 2nd suggestion - simply set an OCO order and then walk away. Literally.

[Anonymous]

	Quote:	trader273
	Ok, Ill play devil's advocate here. What is so special about 15 minutes. Why not 12 or 23 or 5. Is 15 just picked out of the air. Also, the word "Around" is open to interpretation. Is it 1 or 2 ticks in either direction of your entry. Or is it 3 ticks. No offense is intended, but just because you read it in a book, doesn't make it a sound strategy.

15 minutes is half the opening range of 30 mins. Nothing more special than that. Althought a trader could get more creative and pick a FIB or Music Math number. The point is that you want to be entering just as, or right before the influx of the dominant order flow. This causes price to rise or fall. If there is no new surge of order flow than price doesn't move much. Hence anybody that would want to get long, for example, can do so at about the price you did. In a good trade, each person that wants to get long, has to pay a higher price than you (the market is moving up).

So you want to position yourself on the side of the dominate order flow before it begins, yet you do not want to be waiting too long for it to appear.

[torero]

I'll have to say that if you see at that moment the trade seems to go against you, you exit. Then the next moment it does turn your way, you get in. This is the problem is that AT THAT MOMENT, what you see and interpret changes from one setup to another. This is what I consider trading on the fly, unplanned. If I come in with the trade, I have to know beforehand where I will be proven wrong, some resistance or support area, a valid objective level. Seeing the tape doing something I don't like at that moment doesn't give me enough to exit, because the next moment can be favorable. To me this is unplanned trading, intuitive trading. If you have it, great! if you don't, your account won't last long).

[TinGull]

Regarding S/R...that is why all of my trades are based on Market Profile. I know that if we are outside of value and come in to test VAH for example, if we dip into value by 7 ticks or so, there's a higher probability of price moving lower to another value pivot (be it VAL or POC) than price quickly reversing and coming my way. This keeps my stops tight with a higher % of wins (62% so far in 2007) and lets me keep a risk/reward of average $.80:$2.00.

[brownsfan019]

	Quote:	PivotProfiler
	So you want to position yourself on the side of the dominate order flow before it begins, yet you do not want to be waiting too long for it to appear.

That may perhaps be the holy grail - get in a few seconds before a move and exit in 30 seconds when your profit is hit. Sounds great and looks great in a textbook.

Obviously Pivot and I have different views of time stops. And if a 15 time stop works for Pivot, that's perfect. Time stops do not work for me. I agree that you want to be in the trade before the move, but I really don't care if that move is 1, 5, 30, or 60 minutes after I enter. As long as my stop area is respected, then it's a good trade in my opinion. The key is to realize which type of trader are you and then do the same thing over and over and over again. You cannot one day wish you were a time stop trader and the next day wish you just let the trade go.