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If that was the selling climax, then it looks like we just had a re-test on lower volume. But the nasdaq made lower low while the ES just stopped at about exactly the same level. This is my problem, realizing this is a re-test in real time... I can only do so after price starts to move up, so I'm always chasing price. I noticed price trying to go lower... a downbar. The next upbar closed off the highs, so no buying yet. However the next bar volume comes in big time and there she goes!
Other than (a) taking a gamble that price won't break through or (b) waiting for price to rise and chasing price with a worse entry, how can you pin-point the exact entry?
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This was a Spring of a Selling Climax. The exact entry was on the close of the 12:55 bar on the 5-min chart at 1287.50. Risk was modest. Reward was very good.
Springs are an excellent, high probability trade. Every one that sets up properly is a no-brainer. There are diffierent variations and they are thoroghly discussed in Unit 3 of the Wyckoff Course.
You need to look at volume. This is the main indicator, along with the spread and close of the price bar.
You have a Selling Climax in the immediate backround, and the market responded to the climax with a vigorous rally. Wyckoff said explicitly, once you see a Selling Climax, the market is now assumed to be bullish. The reaction back down to the SC area was on generally narrow spreads and receding volume, confirming that supply is now gone from the market. The penetration was minimal and the close on the Spring bar and the bar after couldn't stay under the SC. Also, as you noticed (but not necessary to see this as a choice Spring set-up) there was non-confirmation with the Naz for lower prices. You can't ask for a much more perfect set-up.
There was also a Spring at 10:50 this AM. This failed. Here's a very good excercise: find as many differences between these two springs as you can. Once you have a sense of what you are you are looking for in these two springs, look for other springs on other days (there are plenty of them). Put each one you find into one of two catagories: Springs that Succeed and Springs that Fail. Do this with as many springs as you can find and you will soon own this trade. And, forget about candlesticks with this trade; they are immaterial and a distraction.
Eiger