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A good response Eiger.
I have often argued that trading is always about predicting because we are making a statistically based prediction. For example, I am entering because their is a 68% chance that price will reach my target before retracing to my stop when this pattern occurs in this situation. I've found the "you do not predict" school to be frustrating because they mean one thing when they use the word predict and I mean another thing.
Here you clearly identify prediction in an almost Buddhist sense.
Buddhist's don't have a problem with wanting something ... their problem is with the attachment to that wanting. That's the source of the unsatisfactoriness/unhappiness. Similarly there isn't a problem with predicting that there is a 68% chance of X if Y ... but the problem is the attachment to a statistical prediction. So you use the word anticipate to describe a prediction without attachment to the outcome.
So it seems that by saying "I anticipate" instead of "I predict" one can avoid the attachment, the ego issues, and the difficulty in then simply following your process and the market without distortion. |
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That's excellent, Kiwi. In my book, there is nothing wrong about predicting an outcome based on odds. In fact, if traders thought more in terms of probabilities, they would have better results. And you're right, it's really about not getting attached to an outcome. Well said.
Besides being a trader, I am also a psychologist, so I apply a lot of psychological science to my trading (and I work with a few other traders, as well). There is an awful lot about the markets that you cannot control.
VSA and Wyckoff help us to read the markets pretty darn well, but even with these skills, outcomes are never guaranteed. There is only one thing a trader can control, and that's himself or herself. Having a probablistic mindset, remaining unattached to outcomes (which I do via anticipation), and keeping one's mind-in-the-moment to be able to effectively use
VSA are some of the psychological keys needed for good trading. These are the things a trader can control, or bring under control with a little effort.
Eiger