Trading The PPI and CPI
I have learned a lot about trading the Dow mini futures (YM) on this site and from SoulTrader. I like an opportunity to give back.
After watching, for a number of months, the way the YM futures react to the PPI and CPI, it became clear to me that this was a trading opportunity.
The strategy is simple quick and should appeal to expert and novice alike.
The numbers come about at 8:30 AM once about every middle of the month. Start watching the YM's ten to fifteen minutes before the announcement if you aren't already watching pre-market. Although I don't really care how the pre-market is behaving before. Then around 15 seconds before the announcement (8:29:45) Place and buy order 10 ticks above and sell order 10 ticks below the last price. If you do this earlier, you risk getting an early fill and possible in the wrong direction.
Be ready, as soon as you get filled, you MUST put your exit strategy into action.
This is traders choice. For me, I exit my first partial like one would play the OPG ( opening only plays), I sell partial at the first sign of weakness and set balance to break even. You have just locked in profit. As the trade progresses, just partial out.
I have played this strategy the last four months with 100% profitability so far.
Here are a few rules to consider.
1. Since I consider this an uncontrolled trade meaning there is no setup, target, or defined stop loss level, put on a smaller position size that you normally would. At least until you reach your comfort level. Because the those numbers come out, the market will become a loose cannon in the early going.
2. Leave the other unfilled order from your bracket in place, until you have your own stop strategy in place ( i.e. if your buy is filled, keep the sell order, if sell is filled keep your buy order ). The reason for this is what I said above, the market can whipsaw against your position.
3. Let your profit run. When the cash market opens, I've seen some very nice continuation in the direction the PPI and CPI had set the market in.
4. You should see a nice pop in price, >10 - 20 or so points in the money in the first few seconds. If you see a sluggish response, 10 points or less, be ready to exit b/e the trade may go against you sooner. Though my exit is the same. Book half and and place balance at break even.
5. Don't try this with the FOMC Announcement at 2:15 pm. The whipsaw can be much more violent and you can get ripped really bad. Better to wait for the market to settle and look for an entry later.
Give it a try and let me know what you think.
Any and all thoughts welcome.
Last edited by Bfbusa; 12-02-2006 at 05:29 PM.
Reason: Correct Typos
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