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Old 02-23-2008, 04:31 PM
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Re: Real Time Price Action- Clue to Puzzle?

Well, the short answer is that you don't know. Aren't you glad you asked?

It depends on what you're trading and how vulnerable it is to support and resistance issues. You can't know it's the "top" until afterwards, which isn't going to do you any good. But if price reaches resistance of some sort and this stalling goes on, you're in a better position to understand what professional money -- or even other retail traders -- is up to (note I call it professional rather than "smart", because it isn't always).

It also depends on where the rally starts and what it starts from. If you're talking about a big-time accumulative base, then you've probably got legs. But if it's just a fart of some sort or other, then you very likely don't. What Wyckoff referred to as effort and result. Not much effort, not much result. Lots of effort, you ought to get lots of result. And if you don't, then something's up.

But if you know where R is and price is fast approaching and volume suddenly increases, then you're getting a lot of selling going on. If demand is able to absorb all this and push price higher anyway, fine. But if buyers are struggling under the weight, best know where the exits are.

So if you want to know what buyers and sellers are doing within that 1m bar, you're going to have to look inside it. If you can do that by watching price bob up and down along that 1m pole while also watching volume inch up, or not, that's fine. But I suggest you plot a 5s chart underneath so that you're not quite so separated from their activity.

I transferred the Springboard information from t2w to my blog here. It's not quite what you're referring to, but it does take a scalpel to the bar and opens up its insides for all to see. It may help you understand what I'm talking about, even though it may not specifically address your particular question.

Db

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