[alleyb]

Each decade has its own market characteristics. I’ve, therefore had to make many adjustments in my trading style and approach over the years. Moreover, in order to continue trading successfully I’ll have to continue to adjust since market change is ongoing and inevitable. The ability to adjust comes from thinking for myself. In other words, using sound market logic rather than following formulae by rote or automatically accepting the conclusions of others.
You can’t respond mechanically and expect to succeed on a regular basis.

In other words, while you might be able to beat the standard probabilities in the short run, but the odds in favor of that happening in the long run are infinitesimal. There is a reasonable chance, for example, that a coin tossed in the air five times might land heads up five times in a row. However, as you increase the sample size and toss the same coin 1,000 times, the probability is that the nickel will land heads up closer to 50% of the time, not 100% as it did in the smaller sample.

By developing a logical approach, it is possible to identify data parameters that work 60 times out of 100 – sometimes 90 times out of 100. The key to using these parameters effectively is thinking about the conditions in which they will succeed. You can separate the winning situations from the losers more often than not when you don’t react automatically. By way of explanation, the characteristics that classify daily market activity – Normal, Trend and Non-Trend – are defined data parameters. Once you recognize the characteristics of a Trend Day, for instance, the appropriate response is to go with the market. This strategy won’t work on normal days because normal day’s activity creates a different kind of opportunity which requires a different approach or response.

Consistent performance depends on LOGICAL DEDUCTION –
About WHAT is ACTUALLY happening in front of you on the screen. That’s why the only effective tools in today’s uncertain investment climate, in my opinion, are those that DON’T treat all process and opportunities as equal or alike. To evaluate the situation developing in front of you on the screen realistically, you need experience gained in the marketplace and tools that DON’T rely on happenstance.