Welcome to the forum, O Z,
Thanks for the thread and posts. It is always nice to see a successful trader posting with bravado on some tips of the trade to a room full of skeptics
. The skeptics would say this is simply another moving average following system, pretty much like 90% of the systems out there. It is not bad, but the devil is always in the details, which I hope to provide with some analysis below.
The only objection one may bring up is that there is some discretion in this system, for example:
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If you choose to do back-testing then take special care for signals from late November to end of Dec. Low volume during this time of the year creates wild swings. |
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Well, you can't really pick and choose time periods in a system without being more specific in the details. For example, is the system going to skip the holidays or the month of December? or how do you quantify volume in Forex? which doesn't report volumes.
There were also times when trades were exited without being stopped or reached target by trader's discretion.
Attached please find data on a strategy analysis of one interpretation of the OzFx System using Tradestation. The strategy employs a Lebeau trailing stop instead of the money management as presented above. The
attached IE mht file (compressed as rar) showed that overall, trading 1 lot, the strategy is good with most long trades for the EURJPY, but it is not profitable for short trades. The SMA 200 filter was not shown, but if included, would not have improved the short trades significantly.
Thanks again for posting the OzFx system. It shows that even a fairly simple moving average following system can be profitable if taken with the proper discipline of money management.
A copy of the TS EL
Acceleration Oscillator is also attached.