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Old 02-11-2008, 09:51 PM
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Re: Smart Money Buying? 100,000 Shares...

OK - here is my take on STX as of now. Usual caveats apply. Be interested to hear of others' take on things.

Chart 1, the 1 point by 3 box reversal shows a big spike down to the August 07 lows, and a reaction from there to where it closed today. So once again there was demand around the $19 level (downto $18.50). This spike down could well be what Wyckoff analysts will refer to as Preliminary Support.

Chart 2, a 1 point by 1 box reversal shows me some signs of accumulation beginning - after the preliminary supply and 3 point rise we have a small dip (test) and then continued buying (response). Strength. As of now, though, this move from the preliminary supply spike down is not enough to take it on an extended move higher, there will need to be more accumulation before a significant rally can develop. Thus expect sideways (to aid the process of accumulation) from here, not straight up.

Chart 3 is the daily OHLC/candle. It shows some VSA warnings. Zoom in to chart 4 to make these clearer.

I will point out some significant points to me - they are in the past so are of limited value now, but these are the things I do watch for.
The move down in mid Jan on huge volume - reversed by a Marubozu day on the 22nd followed by a bullish hammer the next day (I should clarify, the names of the candles are not the important things, rather the price moves that they represent are what are important to me. And, especially on daily charts, the closing price is of a lot more significance than the opening price)). Both on good size volumes, obviously demand is re-entering the market. Supply showed itself on the 31st - narrow range with jump in volume, but demand was also present that day, there is strength here as indicated by the hammer on the 4th.

The rally since then has been on reasonable volumes, although declining. The price is now re-entering an area of previous congestion (early Jan, $22 to $24). The price action for the 11th shows another test lower (the lower shadow of the candle) with a strong close, but volume is still declining.

For me, the rally from the preliminary support low has about run its course for now, there could well be another point in it, but the probabilities say to me that demand is slowing - any move up above the highs of the 11th are a good opportunity to take profits on longs.

Keep in mind that price volume analysis is like a movie, you have to keep watching as things change, but on what is presented as of now thats my view.

One more thing - it is very interesting with news of the buy back being talked about. If you are of the view that news is used as a tool of manipulation much of the time (I am) then this news is a warning bell that someone wants you to be buying here.

ps - I dont have a feed for US stocks, so I am very impressed by Stockcharts!
Attached Images
File Type: png STX 3.png (34.6 KB, 14 views)
File Type: png STC 4.png (26.3 KB, 13 views)
File Type: png STX PF 1x1.png (72.6 KB, 11 views)
File Type: png STX PF 1x3.png (135.5 KB, 11 views)


Last edited by Soultrader; 02-13-2008 at 03:35 AM.
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