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Hi
Last week the EUR/USD and GDP/USD where are there highst point since I start trading. The USD/JPY standing low.
What must i do monday .... must i wait to buy ore sell.
Greetings
Robyn
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Hi Robyn,
Here's my analysis for the EC (Euro), FWIW. Note that I trade the CME Currency and not Forex. The EC finally broke out of a long, 7-month trading range (see chart). Anyone that bought before the breakout is now in the black, so I expect the upper bracket limit around 1.2950 to be strong support. The EC formed new price highs and a new oscillator high, which together indicates a new momentum high. One principle that I follow is that momentum precedes price, so I expect higher highs on the EC. That means I will have a long bias on the EC, and would not plan on going short unless the EC re-enters the bracket (i.e., a false breakout). On Friday, the EC broke out of its trading range and started to rotate, forming a small balance area and gaining acceptance at the new higher prices (see second chart). My trade strategy would be to go long around the
POC at 1.3100, if the EC opens above the
POC, or around the lower bracket limit at 1.3070. I would also go long if the EC trades above the balance area that formed on Friday around 1.3130. If the EC starts to penetrate the single prints, I would monitor market internals for weakness (e.g. a divergence) to position a long trade. However, if my stop is too far away from my entry according to my risk parameters, I would let the trade go. There is no way of telling where within the single prints the EC may stop and reverse. What I do not want to see is the EC retrace all of the single prints, because that would be at least short-term bearish. Anyway, this is my trading model. Hope this helps.