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Old 01-19-2008, 12:09 PM
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Re: Recession Exposure

hi Brownfan - have you used any of the ETF's before to hedge? I'm not at the point right now where I would put on a hedge, since i'm still bullish, but a 2nd leg down from here on the dow, and I would seriously begin to consider this.

I've haven't had the need to hedge in the past few years, but I was thinking maybe shorting the SPY or DIA. I know there are a number of those short ETF's you are talking about, either 1X or 2X, but do you think the SPY or DIA would be a tighter correlation to set up a 'true hedge' to the market?

Is there a short ETF out there that is 2X the DOW or S&P?


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James,
The ideas for protecting a long only portfolio can be very basic to exotic.

Some basic ideas:
But puts
Covered calls
Buy a short ETF

Some exotic ideas:

Use futures to hedge (what many big money managers use them for)
Can do some neat stuff with options (options on stocks and/or futures)
Stock futures

Just a few ideas that come to mind. I know 'exotic' may not seem like much here, but to the average investor, those are some exotic ideas. I remember as a broker when going through a time like this, the long only portfolios were just in the shitter and people were panicking. Many would be in 100% cash by now or close to it. Many would sell out near the bottom, that's for sure. So some protection would be nice, but again, the average investor does not / will not think about ways to make money or at least protect what they have in a downfall market. Many just simply cash out somewhere near the bottom.

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