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Old 12-02-2007, 04:16 AM
smwinc smwinc is offline
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Re: Range Trading

Apologies for the long post here--
Trending and Ranges is completely in the eye of the beholder. Timeframe, price range, etc.

I don't think it's worthy of a lengthy discussion about it? If we just look at the most commonly traded US E-mini Index Futures; we all know how important the big money is. The 'institutions' as a group - hedge funds, banks, large proprietary houses - without doubt do not trade a 'trend' system, or a 'range' system. They are (broadly) using (not limited to) quant. models, directional-based, event-based, marcro-economic, long/short, stat. arb, etc. From what I've read of this forum, the calibre of the general forum community know this already.

I think its too easy to get 'caught up' in the world of "little guy" trading. We all have particular ways of getting into and exiting the market - OEC just mentioned plenty.

In my humble view, whatever you trade in whatever way, just understand that. Make it your world - Trade what you see, understand and have experience in. Avoid trying to put things into categories.

as an example, an experience that stuck in my mind:

I remember working with a bank a while back, with an FX desk. They were predominantly proprietary, but their core function included managing risk / exposure for the bank's currency risk, forward positions, sales trades, etc. As far as size, not uncommon to see the desk execute trades at the 100mln Euros level.

Most people have heard of front-running, or have seen it in the markets. I remember the head of the desk explaining, when they had "nothing better to do" they might see a rival bank come in to buy. Not only do they know they bank (they can see the counterparty), they know the guys working in the bank. Similar to seeing Goldman step up to buy in the S&P Pits, but often even more personal. They can usually take a good guess of if it will be a big or small trade. Even if they had a short bias, they will buy up big-time to front run the other bank, before flipping it once the other bank's stopped buying. The other (really amusing) scenario is when the other bank already anticipated this, and never actually wanted to buy in the first place, and reverses short at 10x the size. Anyway..

The point is - - these guys could not care LESS whether we just made a higher lower, etc. It's about knowing your market, and who trades it, and how.

I think a good general 'rule' to new traders would be: imagine asking your query, or telling your 'market information' to someone like the guys detailed above.

In my opinion:

Range bound markets, trending markets, etc -- no.
demand and supply, liquidity, "real" price action -- yes.

There are endless setups out there, but many of them (or the ones that actually work, anyway) boil down to very very similar, core concepts. So when we try and design a trading style, system or methodology - it needs to start with a) Your market b) apply core concepts to it.


SMW

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