Hi Dogpile,
You offered some interesting and unique ideas. Question for you, how do you quantify the 40k share volume at one price? I guess you would use the matrix window?
The one caveat I would add to what you said about the need to chop would be regarding run-away days. For a bullish move, a gap in the opposite direction of the previous day's close which forms a low to high day. Rare yes.
Interesting to note that ES price faked lower first, then faked higher. Failed both moves away from the opening range and then closed at exactly the 50% level on the day, exactly at
VWAP.
As you mentioned, price spent more time above the 50% level, as seen in the market profile. There is support in the market here, but sellers are holding it down. A good washout bar below resistance could trigger a quick move higher. I think we will see that tomorrow, on "turnaround tuesday". Likely price will make some kind of attempt to close the gap overhead created by last Thursday.
More churning around 1505