Week 51

[Anna-Maria]

	Quote:	cowpip
	I may also raise the stop on my first entry to the indicated level, which I think should serve as support now... still mulling that over. Maybe it's a bit premature? I'd like to see price break and stick above 9650/60 first, which it hasn't yet done.

Nice trading on this leg!

Do what you feel comfortable with regards re-positioning stops & risk etc. These variables within the trading plan are unique & personal to each player & should be based around not only your trade objectives, but geared proportionally to sit within the capital-risk parameters of your trading account.

We'd all love to keep stops/profits flexible, but unfortunately account capital & sensible 'trade-off' between hard earned profit & leaving $$'s on the table need to be balanced.

Bear in mind Cary, December is book balancing month. Volumes will also be affected as differing players begin winding down? Some of these end of year moves can get awful extended, resulting in quite volatile snapbacks.

[cowpip]

	Quote:	texxas
	Bear in mind Cary, December is book balancing month. Volumes will also be affected as differing players begin winding down? Some of these end of year moves can get awful extended, resulting in quite volatile snapbacks.

Thanks. I will definitely keep that in mind. I imagine liquidity is already a fair bit lower than it was last month, and it will probably dry up to next-to-nothing next week as everyone heads home for the holidays. I've been on the receiving end of some of those nasty whips in the past during low liquidity periods - they can indeed be quite nasty and frustrating. But we can't predict them, nor can we prevent them. All we can do is take our best precautions to protect ourselves when they occur.

It's been another very educational year for me! I look forward to the new year more than ever. Should be a blast.

Thanks again for everything. I think I'll be hitting the sack now and let things run on their own until I wake.

Best regards to everyone!

[Anna-Maria]

Mo matter what anyone say's, confidence is a traders main weapon!

There's no shame in adopting a defensive stance to your trading until your awareness & experience of your instrument improves, yeah?

I'd much rather bank $500 from a defensive standpoint than lose $1,000 via an aggressive & over confident viewpoint.

There's a time & place for aggression.

That methodology can be engaged when you're fully versed in spotting a repetative & consistant pattern or set-up occuring at one of your favorite levels etc.

Then you can hit it hard & ride it accordingly. Until then, snipe your profits & bank the bucks.

As the experience grows, so too will the confidence factor.

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush!!

[torero]

Gonna exit here, before the news this afternoon hits. Double-bottom target hit and at 50% retracement from the low. We'll see after the news how things go.

[cowpip]

Just a quick followup to my previous trades. Ended up closing both trades (in a "defensive stance", as Texxas so aptly put it) yesterday at 9704 after the positive cable news failed to push beyond the 9720/30 resistance level and prior to the US news retail sales which ended up being dollar positive.

I expect trading conditions to become less supportive of longer swing trades (or at least, more hostile towards them), particularly after this week is up, so I'll likely just be looking for quicker all-in-all-out intraday trades through the rest of this week.

Good trading, everyone!

[torero]

My sentiments are the same about longer swing trades. Doesn't seem to look appetizing for these types of trades. I usually don't like to intraday trades for forex (don't know why), I may just sit out until major levels break, up or down.

[Anna-Maria]

	Quote:	torero
	My sentiments are the same about longer swing trades. Doesn't seem to look appetizing for these types of trades. I usually don't like to intraday trades for forex (don't know why), I may just sit out until major levels break, up or down.

I agree. The volumes are decreasing as the week unfolds, & will continue to dissipate after Friday.

We're simply focusing on our range barriers to trigger the odd intraday trade(s) where appropriate.

But to be honest, unless something screams out "hit it" we're not too concerned with getting involved from hereon in.

It's been a decent year, no point in trading for trading's sake.

[Anna-Maria]

	Quote:	cowpip
	I expect trading conditions to become less supportive of longer swing trades (or at least, more hostile towards them), particularly after this week is up, so I'll likely just be looking for quicker all-in-all-out intraday trades through the rest of this week.

Don't forget or neglect the crosses guy's. Just because the Dollar denominated majors are mired in clack & see-saw range boundaries, doesn't mean there aren't opportunities out there to climb into swing moves!

Spend a few minutes to scan the cross instruments via the larger timeframes to spot potential opp's setting up off key Big Figures or Fib touches?

GBP is still a strong candidate due to the fundamental bias towards the interest rate/inflation combo. Same set-ups/signals can be initiated on any instrument as price cuts out a directional play.

4hr frame of the GBP/CHF setting up off a multi Fib play on the GBP Bull move.



60m snap of same level, highlighting the 'trend continuation' signals & pullback/stall zones.

[Anna-Maria]

Horrible, clacky price activity on Cable again this morning. The 240m continues to display tight lower top behaviour, with the 60m frame chopping around aimlessly.

Our resistance guides blanketed the price action near the top of the Tokyo range, leading into the London open, which kept us sidelined on any bullish potential. No defined pullback, so nothing to do on that side of things.

Neither have we triggered a short, although close inspection of the 5m frame around that negative 15m behaviour at the London open would have offered more appetite to short it rather than take the alternative play.

Typical lethargic end of week behaviour on this pair - not very enticing at all.

We'll see whether our support % lines will contain it until the impending NY data hits the tape later on. But I'm not getting involved in this clack today.

[Anna-Maria]

A zoomed in snapshot of the 240min frame highlights this lacklustre behaviour around the upper Fib of the recent ascent.

Nothing setting up. Merely choppy, diluted activity with no real directional emphasis thus far.

If anything, taking a 'short' bias off this lower top activity is probably the less risky option (back towards the 38.2).

But there are better candidates out there to watch at the moment if the temptation exists to trade?

Definitely time to go do a bit of holiday shopping if Cable is your main focus instrument